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Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-23 Andrew Bray , Frederic Paik Schoenberg

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 D. Sornette

The concept of "self-organized criticality" (SOC) has been introduced by Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (1987) to describe the statistics of avalanches on the surface of a sandpile with a critical slope, which produces a scale-free powerlaw size…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-03-02 Markus J. Aschwanden

This paper is devoted to the study of the interaction between two distinct forms of non-stationary processes, which we will refer to as non-stationarity of first and second kind. The non-stationarity of first kind is caused by…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-12-18 Callum Muir , Mauro Bologna , Paolo Grigolini

We show that correlated dynamics and long time memory persist in self-organized criticality (SOC) systems even when forced away from the defined critical point that exists at vanishing drive strength. These temporal correlations are found…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-16 Ryan Woodard , David E. Newman , Raúl Sánchez , Benjamin A. Carreras

The disorder and a simple convex measure of complexity are studied for rank ordered power law distributions, indicative of criticality, in the case where the total number of ranks is large. It is found that a power law distribution may…

adap-org · Physics 2007-05-23 J. S. Shiner

In the prototype sandpile model of self-organized criticality time series obtained by decomposing avalanches into waves of toppling show intermittent fluctuations. The q-th moments of wave size differences possess local multiscaling and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Mario De Menech , Attilio L. Stella

The concept of memory is of central importance for characterizing complex systems and phenomena. Presence of long-term memories indicates how their dynamics can be less sensitive to initial conditions compared to the chaotic cases. On the…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-11 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

Self-organized bistability (SOB) is the counterpart of 'self-organized criticality' (SOC), for systems tuning themselves to the edge of bistability of a discontinuous phase transition, rather than to the critical point of a continuous one.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-03-20 Victor Buendía , Serena di Santo , Pablo Villegas , Raffaella Burioni , Miguel A. Muñoz

After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Stefano Lise , Maya Paczuski , Attilio Stella

The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-03-06 B. F. Apostol , L. C. Cune

This entry in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Springer present a summary of some of the concepts and calculational tools that have been developed in attempts to apply statistical physics approaches to seismology. We…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-04-22 D. Sornette , M. J. Werner

Seismology applied to giant planets could drastically change our understanding of their deep interiors, as it has happened with the Earth, the Sun, and many main-sequence and evolved stars. The study of giant planets' composition is…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-08 Patrick Gaulme , Benoit Mosser , Francois-Xavier Schmider , Tristan Guillot , Jason Jackiewicz

Earthquake network is known to be of the small-world type. The values of the network characteristics, however, depend not only on the cell size (i.e., the scale of coarse graining needed for constructing the network) but also on the size of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-19 Sumiyoshi Abe , Denisse Pasten , Norikazu Suzuki

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-18 T. R. Krishna Mohan , P. G. Revathi

The role of the moon in triggering earthquakes has been studied since the early 1900s. Theory states that as land tides swept by the moon cross fault lines, stress in the Earth's plates intensifies, increasing the likelihood of small…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-10-10 Lyndie Chiou

The statistical property of the calm times, i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes with arbitrary values of magnitude, is studied by analyzing the seismic time series data in California and Japan. It is found that the calm…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…

The existence of true scale-invariance in slowly driven models of self-organized criticality without a conservation law, as forest-fires or earthquake automata, is scrutinized in this paper. By using three different levels of description -…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-13 Juan A. Bonachela , Miguel A. Munoz

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-03-19 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette , Stefan Wiemer