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The concept of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) was proposed in an attempt to explain the widespread appearance of power-law in nature. It describes a mechanism in which a system reaches spontaneously a state where the characteristic events…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 B. Cessac

``Self-Organised Criticality'' (SOC) is the mechanism by which complex systems spontaneously settle close to a *critical point*, at the edge between stability and chaos, and characterized by fat-tailed fluctuations and long-memory…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-09 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We show that Bak et al.'s unified scaling law cannot be trivially explained by a single Omori aftershock sequence. On the contrary, the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity plays a fundamental role in the unified scaling law, which implies…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Alvaro Corral , Kim Christensen

We study the asymptotic distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-10 Raúl Fierro , Víctor Leiva

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2022-04-07 Adriano Gualandi , Davide Faranda , Chris Marone , Massimo Cocco , Gianmarco Mengaldo

Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-11-07 Leila Mizrahi , Dario Jozinović

Fluctuations in the occurrence of large, disastrous earthquakes are important for the study of deviations from the regular behavior of earthquakes. In this study, to assist in our understanding of the irregular behavior of earthquake…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-18 Tetsuya Mitsudo , Naoyuki Kato

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-07-18 G. Molchan

Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-07-23 Yan. Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson , Robert J. Geller

Earthquakes are commonly estimated using physical seismic stations, however, due to the installation requirements and costs of these stations, global coverage quickly becomes impractical. An efficient and lower-cost alternative is to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Daniele Rege Cambrin , Isaac Corley , Paolo Garza , Peyman Najafirad

We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-07-24 Yan Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson

Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-12 Chon-Kit Pun , Sakib Matin , W. Klein , Harvey Gould

We propose a new metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Marco Baiesi , Maya Paczuski

Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-08-03 Srutarshi Pradhan

We have made high resolution observations of the Sun in which we identify individual sunquakes and see power from these seismic events being pumped into the resonant modes of vibration of the Sun. A typical event lasts about five minutes.…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-30 P. L. Goode , L. H. Strous , T. R. Rimmele , R. T. Stebbins

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…

Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process' increments infinite variance and/or process' memory. The $b$-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 P. A. Varotsos , N. V. Sarlis , E. S. Skordas

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-03-25 T. R. Krishna Mohan P. G. , Revathi

We present theoretical arguments and simulation data indicating that the scaling of earthquake events in models of faults with long-range stress transfer is composed of at least three distinct regions. These regions correspond to three…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 M. Anghel , W. Klein , J. B. Rundle , J. S. S'a Martins

This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-12-06 John B Rundle , Molly Luginbuhl , Alexis Giguere , Donald L Turcotte
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