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We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved…
In observational studies, propensity scores are commonly estimated by maxi- mum likelihood but may fail to balance high-dimensional pre-treatment covariates even after specification search. We introduce a general framework that unifies and…
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed replacing all approaches for operational risk capital, including the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), with a simplified formula called the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA). This…
We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…
We study the fixed-confidence best arm identification (BAI) problem within the multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework under the Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) criterion. Our analysis considers a nonparametric setting, allowing for general reward…
Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…
Consider a multi-agent network comprised of risk averse social sensors and a controller that jointly seek to estimate an unknown state of nature, given noisy measurements. The network of social sensors perform Bayesian social learning -…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is widely used to account for the preferences of a risk-averse agent in the extreme loss scenarios. To study the effectiveness of randomization in interdiction games with an interdictor that is both risk and…
In practice, the value-at-risk (VaR) for a longer holding period is often scaled using the 'square root of time rule'. The VaR is determined for a shorter holding period and then scaled up according to the desired holding period. For…
Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…
The most recent financial upheavals have cast doubt on the adequacy of some of the conventional quantitative risk management strategies, such as VaR (Value at Risk), in many common situations. Consequently, there has been an increasing need…
Chance-constrained programs (CCPs) provide a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but their nonconvex feasible regions make them computationally challenging. A widely used convex inner approximation replaces…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
This paper compares the Value--at--Risk (VaR) forecasts delivered by alternative model specifications using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure recently developed by Hansen et al. (2011). The direct VaR estimate provided by the…
In this paper, we introduce an efficient and end-to-end quantum algorithm tailored for computing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and conditional Value-at-Risk (CVar) for a portfolio of European options. Our focus is on leveraging quantum…
We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
A risk measure that is consistent with the second-order stochastic dominance and additive for sums of independent random variables can be represented as a weighted entropic risk measure (WERM). The expected utility maximization problem with…
Owing to the potential higher energy supply efficiency and operation flexibility, integrated energy system (IES), which usually includes electric power, gas and heating/cooling systems, is considered as one of the primary forms of energy…