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Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…

Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…

Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…

Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…

In this work, we study the sample complexity problem of risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a generative model, where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance level $\tau$ at each step, a…

The classical risk-neutral newsvendor problem is to decide the order quantity that maximises the expected profit. Some recent works have proposed an alternative model, in which the goal is to minimise the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), a…

In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem under semi-bandit feedback. While much work has been done on algorithms that optimize the expected reward for linear as well as some general reward functions,…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…

Financial portfolios are often optimized for maximum profit while subject to a constraint formulated in terms of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This amounts to solving a linear problem. However, in its original formulation this…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

This paper presents sensitivity analyses of resilience-based active distribution system planning solutions with respect to different parameters. The distribution system planning problem is formulated as a two-stage risk-averse stochastic…

We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…

A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal…

This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current…

This paper proposes a risk-aware control approach to enforce safety for discrete-time nonlinear systems subject to stochastic uncertainties. We derive some useful results on the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and define a…

We study the problem of incorporating risk while making combinatorial decisions under uncertainty. We formulate a discrete submodular maximization problem for selecting a set using Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk metric commonly…

This paper considers the use for Value-at-Risk computations of the so-called Beta-Kotz distribution based on a general family of distributions including the classical Gaussian model. Actually, this work develops a new method for estimating…

Enforcing safety in the presence of stochastic uncertainty is a challenging problem. Traditionally, researchers have proposed safety in the statistical mean as a safety measure in this case. However, ensuring safety in the statistical mean…

Many modern machine learning tasks require models with high tail performance, i.e. high performance over the worst-off samples in the dataset. This problem has been widely studied in fields such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and…