Related papers: Should retirement age be coupled to life expectanc…
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international…
Using an artificial system of self-replicating strings, we show a correlation between the age of a genotype and its abundance that reflects a punctuated rather than gradual picture of evolution, as suggested long ago by Willis. In support…
Gentrification is associated with rapid demographic changes within inner-city neighborhoods. While many fear that gentrification drives low-income people from their homes and communities, there is limited evidence of the consequences of…
The Australian Government uses the means-test as a way of managing the pension budget. Changes in Age Pension policy impose difficulties in retirement modelling due to policy risk, but any major changes tend to be `grandfathered' meaning…
In recent years, it has been debated whether a reduction in working hours would be a viable solution to tackle the unemployment caused by technological change. The improvement of existing production technology is gradually being seen to…
Are there limits to human longevity? We suggest a new demographic model to describe human demographic trajectories. Specifically, the model mathematically defines the limits of longevity. Through the demographic analysis of trends for…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without…
We mathematically demonstrate how and what it means for two collective pension funds to mutually insure one another against systematic longevity risk. The key equation that facilitates the exchange of insurance is a market clearing…
Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…
Structuring a viable pension plan is a problem that arises in the study of financial contracts pricing and bears special importance these days. Deterministic pension models often rely on projections that are based on several assumptions…
Dynamic retirement glidepaths evolve over time based on some measure such as the retiree's funded status or current market valuations. Conversely, static glidepaths are fixed at a starting point and selected under the assumption that they…
Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental…
This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure…
We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity on fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…
Models of many-species ecosystems, such as the Lotka-Volterra and replicator equations, suggest that these systems generically exhibit near-extinction processes, where population sizes go very close to zero for some time before rebounding,…
A steady influx of a single deleterious multilocus genotype will impose genetic load on the resident population and leave multiple descendants carrying various numbers of the foreign alleles. Provided that the foreign types are rare at…
Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of…
In 2012 the world's population exceeded 7 billion, and since 2008 the number of individuals living in urban areas has surpassed that of rural areas. This is the result of an overall increase of life expectancy in many countries that has…