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We identify a fundamental pathology in the likelihood for time delay inference which challenges standard inference methods. By analysing the likelihood for time delay inference with Gaussian process light curve models, we show that it…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Namu Kroupa , Will Handley

We study sequential probability assignment in the Gaussian setting, where the goal is to predict, or equivalently compress, a sequence of real-valued observations almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean constrained to a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Jaouad Mourtada

We show numerically that the roughness and growth exponents of a wide range of rough surfaces, such as random deposition with relaxation (RDR), ballistic deposition (BD) and restricted solid-on-solid model (RSOS), are independent of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-04-09 S. Hosseinabadi , M. A. Rajabpour , M. Sadegh Movahed , S. M. Vaez Allaei

Recent measurements of resonance widths for low-energy neutron scattering off heavy nuclei show large deviations from the standard Porter-Thomas distribution. We propose a new resonance width distribution based on the random matrix theory…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2012-10-09 Gavriil Shchedrin , Vladimir Zelevinsky

We provide sample complexity upper bounds for agnostically learning multivariate Gaussians under the constraint of approximate differential privacy. These are the first finite sample upper bounds for general Gaussians which do not impose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-21 Ishaq Aden-Ali , Hassan Ashtiani , Gautam Kamath

The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-24 Malek Ben Salem , Olivier Roustant , Fabrice Gamboa , Lionel Tomaso

Two dimensional condensed matter is realised in increasingly diverse forms that are accessible to experiment and of potential technological value. The properties of these systems are influenced by many length scales and reflect both generic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-15 Andrea Taroni , Steven T. Bramwell , Peter C. W. Holdsworth

In this paper, we derive the explicit series expansion of the eigenvalue distribution of various models, namely the case of non-central Wishart distributions, as well as correlated zero mean Wishart distributions. The tools used extend…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Ø. Ryan , A. Masucci , S. Yang , M. Debbah

Motivated by the need to analyze large, decentralized datasets, distributed Bayesian inference has become a critical research area across multiple fields, including statistics, electrical engineering, and economics. This paper establishes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Bohan Wu , César A. Uribe

This paper proposes a geometric estimator of dependency between a pair of multivariate samples. The proposed estimator of dependency is based on a randomly permuted geometric graph (the minimal spanning tree) over the two multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-02 Salimeh Yasaei Sekeh , Alfred O. Hero

Random-matrix theory is used to study the mesoscopic fluctuations of the excitation gap in a metal grain or quantum dot induced by the proximity to a superconductor. We propose that the probability distribution of the gap is a universal…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 M. G. Vavilov , P. W. Brouwer , V. Ambegaokar , C. W. J. Beenakker

We derive properties of Latent Variable Models for networks, a broad class of models that includes the widely-used Latent Position Models. These include the average degree distribution, clustering coefficient, average path length and degree…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-26 Riccardo Rastelli , Nial Friel , Adrian E. Raftery

While there have been important theoretical advances in understanding the universality classes of interfaces moving in porous media, the developed tools cannot be directly applied to experiments. Here we introduce a method that can identify…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Reka Albert , Albert-Laszlo Barabasi , Nathan Carle , Andrew Dougherty

The analytic inference, e.g. predictive distribution being in closed form, may be an appealing benefit for machine learning practitioners when they treat wide neural networks as Gaussian process in Bayesian setting. The realistic widths,…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-08-01 Chi-Ken Lu

Over the past decade, characterizing the exact asymptotic risk of regularized estimators in high-dimensional regression has emerged as a popular line of work. This literature considers the proportional asymptotics framework, where the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-02 Samriddha Lahiry , Pragya Sur

We propose a Bayesian approximate inference method for learning the dependence structure of a Gaussian graphical model. Using pseudo-likelihood, we derive an analytical expression to approximate the marginal likelihood for an arbitrary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-13 Janne Leppä-aho , Johan Pensar , Teemu Roos , Jukka Corander

We develop a new formulation of Stein's method to obtain computable upper bounds on the total variation distance between the geometric distribution and a distribution of interest. Our framework reduces the problem to the construction of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-21 Erol A. Peköz , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

We numerically study the geometry of a driven elastic string at its sample-dependent depinning threshold in random-periodic media. We find that the anisotropic finite-size scaling of the average square width $\bar{w^2}$ and of its…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-12-22 Sebastian Bustingorry , Alejandro B. Kolton

A Gaussian variational approximation is often used to study interfaces in random media. By considering the 1+1 dimensional directed polymer in a random medium, it is shown here that the variational Ansatz typically leads to a negative…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-30 D. B. Saakian , Th. M. Nieuwenhuizen

In the context of mod-Gaussian convergence, as defined previously in our work with J. Jacod, we obtain lower bounds for local probabilities for a sequence of random vectors which are approximately Gaussian with increasing covariance. This…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-26 E. Kowalski , A. Nikeghbali