Universal coding, intrinsic volumes, and metric complexity

We study sequential probability assignment in the Gaussian setting, where the goal is to predict, or equivalently compress, a sequence of real-valued observations almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean constrained to a given subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$. First, in the case of a convex constraint set $K$, we express the hardness of the prediction problem (the minimax regret) in terms of the intrinsic volumes of $K$; specifically, it equals the logarithm of the Wills functional from convex geometry. We then establish a comparison inequality for the Wills functional in the general nonconvex case, which underlines the metric nature of this quantity and generalizes the Slepian-Sudakov-Fernique comparison principle for the Gaussian width. Motivated by this inequality, we characterize the exact order of magnitude of the considered functional for a general nonconvex set, in terms of global covering numbers and local Gaussian widths. This implies sharp estimates, of metric nature, on the log-Laplace transform of the intrinsic volume sequence of a convex body. As part of our analysis, we also characterize the minimax redundancy for a general constraint set. We finally relate and contrast our findings with classical asymptotic results in information theory.