Related papers: Are Forest Fires Predictable?
Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and…
Wildfire is one of the biggest disasters that frequently occurs on the west coast of the United States. Many efforts have been made to understand the causes of the increases in wildfire intensity and frequency in recent years. In this work,…
We introduce a new mathematical model to explore the dynamic relationship between prescribed burning and bushfire occurrence, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model admits a unique steady-state, and its…
Climate change is expected to aggravate wildfire activity through the exacerbation of fire weather. Improving our capabilities to anticipate wildfires on a global scale is of uttermost importance for mitigating their negative effects. In…
In circular plot sampling, trees within a given distance from the sample plot location constitute a sample, which is used to infer characteristics of interest for the forest area. If the sample is collected using a technical device located…
A grove is a spanning forest of a planar graph in which every component tree contains at least one of a special subset of vertices on the outer face called nodes. For the natural probability measure on groves, we compute various connection…
The dynamics of a rain forest is extremely complex involving births, deaths and growth of trees with complex interactions between trees, animals, climate, and environment. We consider the patterns of recruits (new trees) and dead trees…
Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the…
Recurrent events are common in clinical, healthcare, social and behavioral studies. A recent analysis framework for potentially censored recurrent event data is to construct a censored longitudinal data set consisting of times to the first…
In recent decades, the intensification of wildfire activity in western Canada has resulted in substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. Accurate wildfire risk prediction is hindered by the intrinsic stochasticity of ignition and…
Exploratory data analysis is crucial for developing and understanding classification models from high-dimensional datasets. We explore the utility of a new unsupervised tree ensemble called uncharted forest for visualizing class…
Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…
We consider the one-dimensional generalized forest fire process: at each site of $\zz$, seeds and matches fall according some i.i.d. stationary renewal processes. When a seed falls on an empty site, a tree grows immediately. When a match…
Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and…
Wildfire forecasting has been one of the most critical tasks that humanities want to thrive. It plays a vital role in protecting human life. Wildfire prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of its stochastic and chaotic…
We study contextual stochastic optimization problems, where we leverage rich auxiliary observations (e.g., product characteristics) to improve decision making with uncertain variables (e.g., demand). We show how to train forest decision…
Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are storm clouds generated by extreme wildfires. PyroCbs are associated with unpredictable, and therefore dangerous, wildfire spread. They can also inject smoke particles and trace gases into the upper…
We present a new technique for proving logarithmic upper bounds for diameters of evolving random graph models, which is based on defining a coupling between random graphs and variants of random recursive trees. The advantage of the…
Fluctuations of the mean field of a globally coupled dynamical systems are discussed. The origin of hidden coherence is related with the instability of the fixed point solution of the self-consistent Perron-Frobenius equation. Collective…
Wildfires pose a severe threat to the ecosystem and economy, and risk assessment is typically based on fire danger indices such as the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) used in Australia. Studying the joint tail dependence structure…