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We present an analytic method for calculating spectral densities of empirical covariance matrices for correlated data. In this approach the data is represented as a rectangular random matrix whose columns correspond to sampled states of the…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of…
The miltifractal properties and scaling behaviour of the exchange rate variations of the Iranian rial against the US dollar from a daily perspective is numerically investigated. For this purpose the multifractal detrended fluctuation…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
We introduce a deterministic dealer model which implements most of the empirical laws, such as fat tails in the price change distributions, long term memory of volatility and non-Poissonian intervals. We also clarify the causality between…
We analyze tick data of yen-dollar exchange with a focus on its up and down movement. We show that there exists a rather particular conditional probability structure with such high frequency data. This result provides us with evidence to…
We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…
The statistical distances between countries, calculated for various moving average time windows, are mapped into the ultrametric subdominant space as in classical Minimal Spanning Tree methods. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP)…
The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in…
This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in…
Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns $Z$ include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions $f_Z(z)$ and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents $\tau(\beta)$. Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large…
Aging in spin glasses is analyzed via the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the heat transfer between system and bath over a small time $\delta t$. The PDF contains a Gaussian part, describing reversible fluctuations, and an exponential…
We find a remarkable time persistence of various proxies for the kurtosis (p-kurtosis) of the intraday returns distribution for the S&P500 index and this permits a significant measure of their evolution from 1983 to 2004. There appears a…
We briefly review statistical models for the probability distribution of money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between the agents…
This paper proposes a public daily-frequency benchmark for post-GFC government-bond CIP deviations. Although CIP deviations are observed daily, the literature lacks a canonical benchmark for daily regressions comparable to standard factor…
Power grids are prone to failure. Time series of reliability measures such as total power loss or energy not supplied can give significant account of the underlying dynamical behavior of these systems, specially when the resulting…
The tail of the distribution of primordial fluctuations (corresponding to the likelihood of realization of large fluctuations) is of interest, from both theoretical and observational perspectives. In particular, it is relevant for the…
It is becoming increasingly clear that large but rare fluctuations of the primordial curvature field, controlled by the tail of its probability distribution, could have dramatic effects on the current structure of the universe -- {\it e.g.}…