Related papers: Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo mode…
Several solar-like stars exhibit cyclic magnetic activity similar to the Sun as found in photospheric and chromospheric emission. We want to understand the physical mechanism involved in rotational dependence of these activity cycle…
By using the unique database of SOHO/MDI full disk magnetograms from 1996 September to 2011 January, covering the entire solar cycle 23, we analyze the time-variability of the solar magnetic flux spectrum and study the properties of…
The solar dynamo is essentially a cyclic process in which the toroidal component of the magnetic field is converted into the poloidal one and vice versa. This cyclic loop is disturbed by some nonlinear and stochastic processes mainly…
The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
Using the non-linear mean-field dynamo models we calculate the magnetic cycle parameters, like the dynamo cycle period, the amplitude of the total magnetic energy, and the Poynting flux luminosity from the surface for the solar analogs with…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In…
The calling card of solar magnetism is the sunspot cycle, during which sunspots regularly reverse their polarity sense every 11 years. However, a number of more complicated time-dependent behaviors have also been identified. In particular,…
The solar minimum 23/24 is considered to be unusual because it exhibits features that differ notably from those commonly seen in pervious minima. In this letter, we analyze the solar polar magnetic field, the potential-field solution of the…
The forthcoming solar cycle (SC) 25 was beleived to be rather low when using the sunspot number (SN) as a measurement of the level of activity. The most popular prediction was made by the panel of NASA in 2019, including works based on…
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found…