Related papers: A Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

We review the effect that the choice of a uniform or logarithmic prior has on the Bayesian evidence and hence on Bayesian model comparisons when data provide only a one-sided bound on a parameter. We investigate two particular examples: the…

We show that the recently released B-mode polarisation data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) favour a non-vanishing contribution of primordial gravitational waves of inflationary origin which is in tension with the previous BICEP-Keck…

Ultra-high-dimensional tensor predictors are increasingly common in neuroimaging and other biomedical studies, yet existing methods rarely integrate continuous, count, and binary responses in a single coherent model. We present a Bayesian…

The search for primordial non-Gaussianities (PNG) is theoretically well motivated but remains observationally challenging. Tight constraints with low significance for the standard non-Gaussian shapes suggest that detection may lie beyond…

Large classes of standard single-field slow-roll inflationary models consistent with the required number of e-folds, the current bounds on the spectral index of scalar perturbations, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, and the scale of inflation…

Ensembles of geophysical models improve projection accuracy and express uncertainties. We develop a novel data-driven ensembling strategy for combining geophysical models using Bayesian Neural Networks, which infers spatiotemporally varying…

Bayesian inference is central to modern cosmology, yet comprehensive model comparison and tension quantification remain computationally prohibitive for many researchers. To address this, we release $\texttt{unimpeded}$, a publicly available…

The Bayes Error Rate (BER) is the fundamental limit on the achievable generalizable classification accuracy of any machine learning model due to inherent uncertainty within the data. BER estimators offer insight into the difficulty of any…

Despite over three hundred years of effort, no solutions exist for predicting when a general planetary configuration will become unstable. We introduce a deep learning architecture to push forward this problem for compact systems. While…

We present updated constraints on cosmological parameters in a 12-parameter model, extending the standard six-parameter $\Lambda$CDM by including dynamical dark energy (DE: $w_0$, $w_a$), the sum of neutrino masses ($\sum m_{\nu}$), the…

Using Wenzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation the scalar and tensor power spectra are obtained. Scale invariant spectra are obtained and the spectral indices come very close to the observed data from WMAP and Planck experiments. The…

Motivated by research on gender identity norms and the distribution of the woman's share in a couple's total labor income, we consider functional additive regression models for probability density functions as responses with scalar…

We analyze primordial non-Gaussianity in single field inflationary models when the tensor/scalar ratio is large. Our results show that detectable levels of non-Gaussianity $f_{NL} \sim 50$ are still possible in the simplest class of models…

We present the first attempt to use a combination of CMB, LIGO, and PPTA data to constrain both the tilt and the running of primordial tensor power spectrum through constraints on the gravitational wave energy density generated in the early…

We present the first direct constraints on a Degenerate Higher Order Scalar Tensor (DHOST) inflation model using the Planck 2018 Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) results on non-Gaussianities. We identify that the bispectrum consists of a…

We continue the investigation of kinetic models of a system in contact via stochastic interactions with several spatially homogeneous thermal reservoirs at different temperatures. Considering models different from those investigated in…

We present a careful frequentist analysis of one- and two-point statistics of the hot and cold spots in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data obtained by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP). Our main result is the detection…

In this paper we consider the issue of paradigm evaluation by applying Bayes' theorem along the following nested hierarchy of progressively more complex structures: i) parameter estimation (within a model), ii) model selection and…

The recent local measurement of the Hubble constant based on the distance-ladder method has reached a $1.91\%$ precision, but this result is in tension with the early-universe measurements at the more than 4$\sigma$ level, bringing a crisis…

We confront the predicted effects of hybrid inflationary models on the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) with three years of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Using model selection, we compare the ability of a simple…