Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction
Solar flare forecasting research using machine learning (ML) has focused on high resolution magnetogram data from the SDO/HMI era covering Solar Cycle 24 and the start of Solar Cycle 25, with some efforts looking back to SOHO/MDI for data…
Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…
Solar flares are explosions in the solar atmosphere that release intense bursts of short-wavelength radiation and are capable of producing severe space-weather consequences. Flares release free energy built up in coronal fields, which are…
The accurate forecasting of solar flares is considered a key goal within the solar physics and space weather communities. There is significant potential for flare prediction to be improved by incorporating topological fluxes of magnetogram…
We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…
This paper contributes to the growing body of research on deep learning methods for solar flare prediction, primarily focusing on highly overlooked near-limb flares and utilizing the attribution methods to provide a post hoc qualitative…
Sympathetic solar flares are eruptions that occur nearby in space and time, driven by an apparent interaction between the active regions in which they are triggered. Their statistical existence on the Sun has yet to be firmly established.…
This paper develops a planetary model to predict the occurrence of intermediate range periodicity in solar activity, in particular the ~155 day Rieger periodicity in flare activity. It is shown that periodicity at half integer multiples of…
This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…
Solar flares are generally believed to be powered by free magnetic energy stored in the corona, but the build up of coronal energy alone may be insufficient for the imminent flare occurrence. The flare onset mechanism is a critical but less…
Superflares on solar-type stars has been a rapidly developing field ever since the launch of $\it Kepler$. Over the years, there have been several studies investigating the statistics of these explosive events. In this study, we present a…
In previous works we have developed a method to convert solar X-ray data, collected with the Yohkoh/SXT, into templates of stellar coronal observations. Here we apply the method to several solar flares, for comparison with stellar X-ray…
We study the decay phase of solar flares in several spectral bands using a method based on that successfully applied to white light flares observed on an M4 dwarf. We selected and processed 102 events detected in the Sun-as-a-star flux…
We analyse the temporal evolution of the Differential Emission Measure (DEM) of solar active regions and explore its usage in solar flare prediction. The DEM maps are provided by the Gaussian Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (GAIA-DEM) archive,…
Spectroscopic observations of solar flares provide critical diagnostics of the physical conditions in the flaring atmosphere. Some key features in observed spectra have not yet been accounted for in existing flare models. Here we report a…
Neutrinos generated during solar flares remain elusive. However, after $50$ years of discussion and search, the potential knowledge unleashed by their discovery keeps the search crucial. Neutrinos associated with solar flares provide…
Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin…
The issue of predicting solar flares is one of the most fundamental in physics, addressing issues of plasma physics, high-energy physics, and modelling of complex systems. It also poses societal consequences, with our ever-increasing need…
Understanding how energy is released in flares is one of the central problems of solar and stellar astrophysics. Observations of high temperature flare plasma hold many potential clues as to the nature of this energy release. It is clear,…