Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to…

Active region 11029 was a small, highly flare-productive solar active region observed at a time of extremely low solar activity. The region produced only small flares: the largest of the $>70$ Geostationary Observational Environmental…

The prediction of solar flares, eruptions, and high energy particle storms is of great societal importance. The data mining approach to forecasting has been shown to be very promising. Benchmark datasets are a key element in the further…

Context: Stellar flares have an impact on habitable planets. To relate the observations of the Sun with those of stars, one needs to use a Sun-as-a-star analysis, that is, to degrade the resolution of the Sun to a single point. With the…

Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite…

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…

Flares are a major explosive event in our solar system. They are often followed by coronal mass ejection that has a potential to trigger the geomagnetic storms. There are various studies aiming to predict when and where the flares are…

We developed a method to separate a long-term trend from observed temporal variations of polarization in blazars using a Bayesian approach. The temporal variation of the polarization vector is apparently erratic in most blazars, while…

The spot evolution on the Sun and solar-type stars is important for understanding the nature of consequential flaring activity. This study statistically investigates the variance of flare occurrence rate through the time evolution of spots…

The occurrence of X-class solar flares and their potential impact on the space weather often receive great attention than other flares. But predicting when and where an X-class flare will occur is still a challenge. With the…

We investigate the characteristics of the solar flares complex network. The limited predictability, non-linearity, and self-organized criticality of the flares allow us to study systems of flares in the field of the complex systems. Both…

The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…

Solar flares, the most powerful explosive phenomena in the solar system, may pose significant hazards to spaceborne satellites and ground-based infrastructure. Despite decades of intensive research, reliable flare prediction remains a…

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…

A convolutional neural network (CNN) is used to construct a new catalog for solar flares based on high resolution (1-s cadence) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) soft X-ray data. The CNN is trained to identify flare…

Using a recent census of flare stars from the Kepler survey, we have explored how flare activity evolves across stellar main sequence lifetimes. We utilize a sample of 347 stars with robust flare activity detections, and which have rotation…

Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations,…

In this paper, we study stellar light curves from the TESS satellite (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) for the presence of stellar flares. The main aim is to detect stellar flares using two-minutes cadence data and to perform…