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A thorough analysis of the stability of a coupled version of an inter-hemispheric 3-box model of Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is presented. This study follows a similarly structured analysis on an uncoupled version of the same model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Valerio Lucarini , Peter H. Stone

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…

ao-sci · Physics 2016-08-30 Stephen M. Griffies , Kirk Bryan

A thorough analysis of the stability of the uncoupled Rooth interhemispheric 3-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. The model consists of a northern high latitudes box, a tropical box, and a southern high latitudes box,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Valerio Lucarini , Peter H. Stone

In this work, we study the impact of non-Gaussian alpha-stable Levy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-box model for thermohaline circulation (THC). By maximizing the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-04-29 Daniel Tesfay , Pingyuan Wei , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan , Jurgen Kurth

Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-02 Raphaël Hébert , Thomas Laepple

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Nathaniel Smith , Anvaya Shiney-Ajay , Emmanuel Fleurantin , Ivo Pasmans

Changes in the strength of the thermohaline overturning circulation are associated, by geostrophy, with changes in the east-west pressure difference across an ocean basin. The tropical-polar density contrast and the east-west pressure…

ao-sci · Physics 2015-06-24 Richard J. Greatbatch , K. Andrew Peterson

Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Anders Levermann , Alexa Griesel , Matthias Hofmann , Marisa Montoya , Stefan Rahmstorf

We present a phenomenological reduced-order model to capture the transition to thermoacoustic instability in turbulent combustors. The model is based on the framework of synchronization and considers the acoustic field and the unsteady heat…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-06-14 Yue Weng , Vishnu R. Unni , R. I. Sujith , Abhishek Saha

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-13 John Bailie , Priya Subramanian , Bernd Krauskopf

The main objective of this and its accompanying articles is to derive a mathematical theory associated with the thermohaline circulations (THC). This article provides a general transition and stability theory for the Boussinesq system,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Tian Ma , Shouhong Wang

The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-09-06 Valerio Lucarini , Davide Faranda , Matteo Willeit

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-06 Jaakko Luttinen , Tapani Raiko , Alexander Ilin

We consider a harmonic oscillator under periodic driving and coupled to two harmonic-oscillator heat baths at different temperatures. We use the thermofield transformation with chain mapping for this setup, which allows us to study the…

Quantum Gases · Physics 2022-01-19 Tianqi Chen , Dario Poletti

Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-06-10 Oliver Bothe

We, herein, present a new model based on the framework of synchronization to describe a thermoacoustic system and capture the multiple bifurcations that such a system undergoes. Instead of applying flame describing function to depict the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-06-11 Yue Weng , Vishnu R. Unni , R. I. Sujith , Abhishek Saha

This work is motivated by a desire to understand transitions between stable equilibria observed in Stommel's 1961 thermohaline circulation model. We adapt the model, including a forcing parameter as a dynamic slow variable. The resulting…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-11 Andrew Roberts , Raj Saha

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Jasmine Noory

Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-08 Navid C. Constantinou , Andrew McC. Hogg

We propose a generic uncertainty relationship for cross-diffusion (quasi-soliton) waves triggered by local instabilities through Thermo-Hydro-Mechano-Chemical (THMC) coupling and cross-scale feedbacks. Cross-diffusion waves nucleate when…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2019-07-26 Klaus Regenauer-Lieb , Manman Hu , Christoph Schrank
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