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We introduce Sequential Neural Posterior Score Estimation (SNPSE), a score-based method for Bayesian inference in simulator-based models. Our method, inspired by the remarkable success of score-based methods in generative modelling,…
Retrieving the physical parameters from spectroscopic observations of exoplanets is key to understanding their atmospheric properties. Exoplanetary atmospheric retrievals are usually based on approximate Bayesian inference and rely on…
Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as…
Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…
We consider geothermal inverse problems and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to make standard, `out-of-the-box' Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling more feasible for complex simulation models by…
During epidemics, people will often modify their behaviour patterns over time in response to changes in their perceived risk of spreading or contracting the disease. This can substantially impact the trajectory of the epidemic. However,…
Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta…
Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…
The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed…
Embarrassingly parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) exploits parallel computing to scale Bayesian inference to large datasets by using a two-step approach. First, MCMC is run in parallel on (sub)posteriors defined on data partitions.…
Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $\beta > 0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers…
Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…
Spatial whole-brain Bayesian modeling of task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a great computational challenge. Most of the currently proposed methods therefore do inference in subregions of the brain separately or do…
Accurate statistical models of neural spike responses can characterize the information carried by neural populations. But the limited samples of spike counts during recording usually result in model overfitting. Besides, current models…
Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…
Non-linear state space models are a widely-used class of models for biological, economic, and physical processes. Fitting these models to observed data is a difficult inference problem that has no straightforward solution. We take a…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter estimation for complex stochastic models with intractable likelihoods when model simulation is feasible. Neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a popular SBI approach that often achieves…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) allows one to generate dependent replicates from a posterior distribution for effectively any Bayesian hierarchical model. However, MCMC can produce a significant computational burden. This motivates us to…
A learning-based posterior distribution estimation method, Probabilistic Dipole Inversion (PDI), is proposed to solve quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) inverse problem in MRI with uncertainty estimation. A deep convolutional neural…
Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection…