Related papers: Identification and Inference for Structural Accele…

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental…

The study of causality or causal inference - how much a given treatment causally affects a given outcome in a population - goes way beyond correlation or association analysis of variables, and is critical in making sound data driven…

Adapting to latent confounded shift remains a core challenge in modern AI. This setting is driven by hidden variables that induce spurious correlations between inputs and outputs during training, leading models to rely on non-causal…

We study the identification of causal effects in the presence of different types of constraints (e.g., logical constraints) in addition to the causal graph. These constraints impose restrictions on the models (parameterizations) induced by…

Instrumental variables allow for quantification of cause and effect relationships even in the absence of interventions. To achieve this, a number of causal assumptions must be met, the most important of which is the independence assumption,…

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at…

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such…

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Foundation models for structured time series data must contend with a fundamental challenge: observations often conflate the true underlying physical phenomena with systematic distortions introduced by measurement instruments. This…

We propose and implement an approach to inference in linear instrumental variables models which is simultaneously robust and computationally tractable. Inference is based on self-normalization of sample moment conditions, and allows for…

Model-free time-to-event regression under confounding presents challenges due to biases introduced by causal and censoring sampling mechanisms. This phenomenology poses problems for classical non-parametric estimators like Beran's or the…

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Survival analysis is a fundamental area of focus in biomedical research, particularly in the context of personalized medicine. This prominence is due to the increasing prevalence of large and high-dimensional datasets, such as omics and…

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…