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We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-22 Cristina Butucea , Jean-François Delmas , Anne Dutfoy , Richard Fischer

The paper addresses the problem of estimation of the model parameters of the logistic exponential distribution based on progressive type-I hybrid censored sample. The maximum likelihood estimates are obtained and computed numerically using…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-13 Subhankar Dutta , Suchandan Kayal

This paper proposes a widely applicable method of approximate maximum-likelihood estimation for multivariate diffusion process from discretely sampled data. A closed-form asymptotic expansion for transition density is proposed and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Chenxu Li

This paper considers properties of an optimization based sampler for targeting the posterior distribution when the likelihood is intractable and auxiliary statistics are used to summarize information in the data. Our reverse sampler…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-02 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

Mixture models have received a great deal of attention in statistics due to the wide range of applications found in recent years. This paper discusses a finite mixture model of Birnbaum- Saunders distributions with G components, as an…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Luis Benites , Rocío Maehara , Filidor Vilca , Fernando Marmolejo-Ramos

Quantile regression is a statistical method which, unlike classical regression, aims to predict the conditional quantiles. Classical quantile regression methods face difficulties, particularly when the quantile under consideration is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Lucien M. Vidagbandji , Alexandre Berred , Cyrille Bertelle , Laurent Amanton

A semiparametric copula-based two-part quantile regression framework is developed for the analysis of semicontinuous outcomes characterized by a point mass at zero and a continuous positive component. The proposed approach models the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Guanjie Lyu , Mohamed Belalia , Abdulkadir Hussein

In observational studies, propensity scores are commonly estimated by maxi- mum likelihood but may fail to balance high-dimensional pre-treatment covariates even after specification search. We introduce a general framework that unifies and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Qingyuan Zhao

This paper proposes a new extension of the linear failure rate (LFR) model to better capture real-world lifetime data. The model incorporates an additional shape parameter to increase flexibility. It helps model the minimum survival time…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Suchismita Das , Akul Ameya , Cahyani Karunia Putri

We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-29 Ísak Pétursson , María Óskarsdóttir

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution generated by Lindley random variable which offers a more flexible model for modelling lifetime data. Various statistical properties like distribution function, survival function, moments,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-25 Deepesh Bhati , Mohd. Aamir Malik

Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-13 Philip S. Boonstra , Bhramar Mukherjee , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-19 Yang Liu , Philip Kokic

Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis , Annamaria Guolo , Cristiano Varin

In this short note, we derive a new bias adjusted maximum likelihood estimate for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution with complete data and type I censored data. The proposed estimate of the shape parameter is significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Enes Makalic , Daniel F. Schmidt

Accurately estimating high quantiles beyond the largest observed value is crucial for risk assessment and devising effective adaptation strategies to prevent a greater disaster. The generalized extreme value distribution is widely used for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonggwan Shin , Yire Shin , Jeong-Soo Park

We derive tight and computable bounds on the bias of statistical estimators, or more generally of quantities of interest, when evaluated on a baseline model P rather than on the typically unknown true model Q. Our proposed method combines…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-04 Konstantinos Gourgoulias , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet , Jie Wang

In applications involving ordinal predictors, common approaches to reduce dimensionality are either extensions of unsupervised techniques such as principal component analysis, or variable selection procedures that rely on modeling the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Liliana Forzani , Rodrigo García Arancibia , Pamela Llop , Diego Tomassi

While the real world is inherently stochastic, Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly evaluated on single-round inference against fixed ground truths. In this work, we shift the lens to distribution alignment: assessing whether…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Yanbei Jiang , Amr Keleg , Ryandito Diandaru , Jey Han Lau , Lea Frermann , Biaoyan Fang , Fajri Koto

Quantum diffusion is a major topic in condensed-matter physics, and the Caldeira-Leggett model has been one of the most successful approaches to study this phenomenon. Here, we generalize this model by coupling the bath to the system…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-06-05 Audrique Vertessen , Robin C. Verstraten , Cristiane Morais Smith