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Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Danruo Deng , Guangyong Chen , Yang Yu , Furui Liu , Pheng-Ann Heng

In this paper, we propose TEDL, a two-stage learning approach to quantify uncertainty for deep learning models in classification tasks, inspired by our findings in experimenting with Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) method, a recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-14 Xue Li , Wei Shen , Denis Charles

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods assume that labeled data, unlabeled data and test data are from the same distribution. Open-set semi-supervised learning (Open-set SSL) considers a more practical scenario, where unlabeled data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Yang Yu , Danruo Deng , Furui Liu , Yueming Jin , Qi Dou , Guangyong Chen , Pheng-Ann Heng

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Yongchan Chun , Chanhee Park , Jeongho Yoon , Jaehyung Seo , Heuiseok Lim

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Nis Meinert , Jakob Gawlikowski , Alexander Lavin

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexander Amini , Wilko Schwarting , Ava Soleimany , Daniela Rus

Accurate quantification of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties is essential when deploying Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in high-stakes applications such as drug discovery and financial fraud detection, where reliable predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Linlin Yu , Kangshuo Li , Pritom Kumar Saha , Yifei Lou , Feng Chen

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Murat Sensoy , Lance M. Kaplan , Simon Julier , Maryam Saleki , Federico Cerutti

Semi-supervised classification based on active learning has made significant progress, but the existing methods often ignore the uncertainty estimation (or reliability) of the prediction results during the learning process, which makes it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Shenkai Zhao , Xinao Zhang , Lipeng Pan , Xiaobin Xu , Danilo Pelusi

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine…

Existing semi-supervised medical segmentation co-learning frameworks have realized that model performance can be diminished by the biases in model recognition caused by low-quality pseudo-labels. Due to the averaging nature of their…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-20 Yuanpeng He , Yali Bi , Lijian Li , Chi-Man Pun , Wenpin Jiao , Zhi Jin

Real-world sensor-based learning systems require uncertainty estimation that is both reliable and computationally efficient. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides single-pass uncertainty estimation by modeling the class probabilities via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Berk Hayta , Hannah Laus , Simon Mittermaier , Felix Krahmer

Over recent years, there has been a rapid development of deep learning (DL) in both industry and academia fields. However, finding the optimal hyperparameters of a DL model often needs high computational cost and human expertise. To…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Nan Li , Lianbo Ma , Guo Yu , Bing Xue , Mengjie Zhang , Yaochu Jin

In this work, we present a novel application of an uncertainty-quantification framework called Deep Evidential Learning in the domain of radiotherapy dose prediction. Using medical images of the Open Knowledge-Based Planning Challenge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Hai Siong Tan , Kuancheng Wang , Rafe Mcbeth

We propose Evolutionary Dynamic Loss (EDL), a framework that learns a transferable classification loss in the probability space using unlimited synthetic prediction-label pairs, without accessing real samples during the main loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Meng Xiang , Yan Pei

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Frederik Boe Hüttel , Filipe Rodrigues , Francisco Câmara Pereira

In this work, we examine the effectiveness of an uncertainty quantification framework known as Evidential Deep Learning applied in the context of biomedical image segmentation. This class of models involves assigning Dirichlet distributions…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-24 Hai Siong Tan , Kuancheng Wang , Rafe Mcbeth