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Related papers: Proper Scoring Rules for Agentic Uncertainty Quant…

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Large Language Models (LLMs) deployed in agentic environments must exercise multiple capabilities across different task instances, where a capability is performing one or more actions in a trajectory that are necessary for successfully…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Hangoo Kang , Tarun Suresh , Jon Saad-Falcon , Azalia Mirhoseini

Trajectory Prediction (TP) is an important research topic in computer vision and robotics fields. Recently, many stochastic TP models have been proposed to deal with this problem and have achieved better performance than the traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Chunnan Wang , Chen Liang , Xiang Chen , Hongzhi Wang

Spatial information is often expressed using qualitative terms such as natural language expressions instead of coordinates; reasoning over such terms has several practical applications, such as bus routes planning. Representing and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-05 George Baryannis , Ilias Tachmazidis , Sotiris Batsakis , Grigoris Antoniou , Mario Alviano , Timos Sellis , Pei-Wei Tsai

Two central capabilities of language models (LMs) are: (i) drawing on prior knowledge about entities, which allows them to answer queries such as "What's the official language of Austria?", and (ii) adapting to new information provided in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Tu Nguyen , Kevin Du , Alexander Miserlis Hoyle , Ryan Cotterell

The need for accurate SQL progress estimation in the context of decision support administration has led to a number of techniques proposed for this task. Unfortunately, no single one of these progress estimators behaves robustly across the…

Databases · Computer Science 2012-01-04 Arnd Christian König , Bolin Ding , Surajit Chaudhuri , Vivek Narasayya

The maximum softmax probability (MSP) represents a default approach when evaluating uncertainty quantification for language model generation with structured output. Although cheap, it is often miscalibrated. Methods that probe the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Aliai Eusebi , Alexander Herzog , Xiaoyu Liang , Marie Vasek , Enrico Mariconti , Lorenzo Cavallaro

Uncertainty estimation (UE) of generative large language models (LLMs) is crucial for evaluating the reliability of generated sequences. A significant subset of UE methods utilize token probabilities to assess uncertainty, aggregating…

In binary classification tasks, accurate representation of probabilistic predictions is essential for various real-world applications such as predicting payment defaults or assessing medical risks. The model must then be well-calibrated to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Emmanuel Flachaire , Ewen Gallic , François Hu

Although recent tool-augmented benchmarks involve complex requests, evaluation remains limited to answer matching, neglecting critical trajectory aspects like efficiency, hallucination, and adaptivity. The most straightforward method for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Wonjoong Kim , Sangwu Park , Yeonjun In , Sein Kim , Dongha Lee , Chanyoung Park

We present a Temporal Rule-Anchored Chain-of-Evidence (TRACE) on knowledge graphs for interpretable stock movement prediction that unifies symbolic relational priors, dynamic graph exploration, and LLM-guided decision making in a single…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Qianggang Ding , Haochen Shi , Luis Castejón Lozano , Miguel Conner , Juan Abia , Luis Gallego-Ledesma , Joshua Fellowes , Gerard Conangla Planes , Adam Elwood , Bang Liu

Having the ability to infer characteristics of autonomous agents would profoundly revolutionize defense, security, and civil applications. Our previous work was the first to demonstrate that supervised neural network time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Donald W. Peltier , Isaac Kaminer , Abram Clark , Marko Orescanin

Training language models to produce both correct answers and sound reasoning remains an open challenge. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards typically optimizes only final outcomes, which can lead to a failure mode where task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Kyuyoung Kim , Kevin Wang , Yunfei Xie , Peiyang Xu , Peiyao Sheng , Chen Wei , Zhangyang Wang , Jinwoo Shin , Pramod Viswanath , Sewoong Oh

In this paper, we present promising accurate prefix boosting (PAPB), a discriminative training technique for attention based sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) ASR. PAPB is devised to unify the training and testing scheme in an effective…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-11-08 Murali Karthick Baskar , Lukáš Burget , Shinji Watanabe , Martin Karafiát , Takaaki Hori , Jan Honza Černocký

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) outcomes serve as input for downstream tasks, substantially impacting the satisfaction level of end-users. Hence, the diagnosis and enhancement of the vulnerabilities present in the ASR model bear…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Seonmin Koo , Chanjun Park , Jinsung Kim , Jaehyung Seo , Sugyeong Eo , Hyeonseok Moon , Heuiseok Lim

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Existing approaches to LLM personalization focus on constructing better personalized models or inputs, while treating inference as a single-shot process. In this work, we study Test-Time Personalization (TTP) along an unexplored axis:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Linhai Zhang , Yulan He

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Christian Fröhlich , Robert C. Williamson

Spurious correlations threaten the validity of statistical classifiers. While model accuracy may appear high when the test data is from the same distribution as the training data, it can quickly degrade when the test distribution changes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Zhao Wang , Aron Culotta

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Zhizhong Zhao , Ke Chen

Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Alexander R. Pruss
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