Related papers: Empirical Bayes Conformal Prediction for Vision an…
Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…
Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…
Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via…
Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…
Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…
Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…
The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…
Split conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage, but produces constant-width intervals that overcover in low-variance regions and undercover in high-variance regions. Existing…
We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM…
This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…
Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…