Related papers: Empirical Bayes Conformal Prediction for Vision an…
Large language models are increasingly deployed in settings where reliability matters, yet output-level uncertainty signals such as token probabilities, entropy, and self-consistency can become brittle under calibration--deployment…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…
Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…
Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…
Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…
Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…
We investigate the integration of Conformal Prediction (CP) with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data, aiming to bridge the gap between rigorous uncertainty quantification and privacy-preserving machine learning. Using…
For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…
Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess…
Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…
Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an important tool for distribution-free predictive uncertainty quantification. Yet, a major challenge is to balance computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly for multiple predictions. We…
Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…
The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…