Related papers: Finite-Sample Bounds for Expected Signature Estima…
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…
The problem of the mean-square optimal estimation of the linear functionals which depend on the unknown values of a stochastic stationary sequence from observations of the sequence in special sets of points is considered. Formulas for…
This paper develops a unified finite-time theory for the ordinary least squares estimation of possibly unstable and even slightly explosive vector autoregressive models under linear restrictions, with the applicable region $\rho(A)\leq…
We consider a family of algorithms that successively sample and minimize simple stochastic models of the objective function. We show that under reasonable conditions on approximation quality and regularity of the models, any such algorithm…
We analyze the effect of additive fractional noise with Hurst parameter $H > \frac{1}{2}$ on fast-slow systems. Our strategy is based on sample paths estimates, similar to the approach by Berglund and Gentz in the Brownian motion case. Yet,…
We consider the rate of piecewise constant approximation to a locally stationary process $X(t),t\in [0,1]$, having a variable smoothness index $\alpha(t)$. Assuming that $\alpha(\cdot)$ attains its unique minimum at zero and satisfies the…
Simulation of rough volatility models involves discretization of stochastic integrals where the integrand is a function of a (correlated) fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index $H \in (0,1/2)$. We obtain results on the rate of…
Estimation and counterfactual analysis in dynamic structural models rely on assumptions about the dynamic process of latent variables, which may be misspecified. We propose a framework to quantify the sensitivity of scalar parameters of…
A continuous-time random walk in the quarter plane with homogeneous transition rates is considered. Given a non-negative reward function on the state space, we are interested in the expected stationary performance. Since a direct derivation…
In this work, we show that for all statistical estimation problems, a natural MMSE instability (discontinuity) condition implies the failure of stable algorithms, serving as a version of OGP for estimation tasks. Using this criterion, we…
As a general rule, differential equations driven by a multi-dimensional irregular path $\Gamma$ are solved by constructing a rough path over $\Gamma$. The domain of definition ? and also estimates ? of the solutions depend on upper bounds…
The approximation ratio has become one of the dominant measures in mechanism design problems. In light of analysis of algorithms, we define the \emph{smoothed approximation ratio} to compare the performance of the optimal mechanism and a…
We obtain a Bernstein-type inequality for sums of Banach-valued random variables satisfying a weak dependence assumption of general type and under certain smoothness assumptions of the underlying Banach norm. We use this inequality in order…
Modern methods of generative modelling and unpaired data translation based on Schr\"odinger bridges and stochastic optimal control theory aim to transform an initial density to a target one in an optimal way. In the present paper, we assume…
This paper deals with the scenario approach to robust optimization. This relies on a random sampling of the possibly infinite number of constraints induced by uncertainties in the parameters of an optimization problem. Solving the resulting…
Existing error-bound-based analyses for stochastic algorithms that exhibit certain descent properties, such as randomized coordinate descent and randomized projection methods, are often limited in scope and typically lead to overly…
Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used in manufacturing quality control to support supplier qualification and product release decisions based on fixed acceptance thresholds (e.g., $C_{pk} \geq 1.33$). In practice, these…
We study estimators of the optimal transport (OT) map between two probability distributions. We focus on plugin estimators derived from the OT map between estimates of the underlying distributions. We develop novel stability bounds for OT…
The goal of this paper is to simplify and strengthen the Le Jan-Qian approximation scheme of studying the uniqueness of signature problem to the non-Markov setting. We establish a general framework for a class of multidimensional stochastic…
We introduce a random matrix model for the stationary covariance of multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with heterogeneous temperatures, where the covariance is constrained by the Sylvester-Lyapunov equation. Using the replica method,…