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Expectations of path integrals of killed stochastic processes play a central role in several applications across physics, chemistry, and finance. Simulation-based evaluation of these functionals is often biased and numerically expensive due…
McKean-Vlasov SDEs describe systems where the dynamics depend on the law of the process. The corresponding Fokker-Planck equation is a nonlinear, nonlocal PDE for the corresponding measure flow. In the presence of common noise and…
We study the problem of estimating the fixed point of a contractive operator defined on a separable Banach space. Focusing on a stochastic query model that provides noisy evaluations of the operator, we analyze a variance-reduced stochastic…
We analyze the learning properties of the stochastic gradient method when multiple passes over the data and mini-batches are allowed. We study how regularization properties are controlled by the step-size, the number of passes and the…
Consider a multidimensional diffusion process $X=\{X\left(t\right) :t\in\lbrack0,1]\}$. Let $\varepsilon>0$ be a \textit{deterministic}, user defined, tolerance error parameter. Under standard regularity conditions on the drift and…
This paper investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by \emph{general}, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that…
Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…
This paper establishes the existence and uniqueness of solutions for rough differential equations driven by reduced rough paths with low regularity, specifically in the roughness regime $\frac{1}{3} < \alpha \leq \frac{1}{2}$. While the…
Recent results in quantization theory show that the mean-squared expected distortion can reach a rate of convergence of $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$, where $n$ is the sample size [see, e.g., IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 60 (2014) 7279-7292 or Electron.…
The It\^o formula, also known as the change-of-variables formula, is a cornerstone of It\^o stochastic calculus. Over time, this formula has been extended to apply to random processes for which classical calculus is insufficient. Since…
Stochastic bridges are commonly used to impute missing data with a lower sampling rate to generate data with a higher sampling rate, while preserving key properties of the dynamics involved in an unbiased way. While the generation of…
We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…
Let $B^{a,b}:=\{B_t^{a,b},t\geq0\}$ be a weighted fractional Brownian motion of parameters $a>-1$, $|b|<1$, $|b|<a+1$. We consider a least square-type method to estimate the drift parameter $\theta>0$ of the weighted fractional…
Regularly varying stochastic processes are able to model extremal dependence between process values at locations in random fields. We investigate the empirical extremogram as an estimator of dependence in the extremes. We provide conditions…
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…
In this article, we develop a Bayesian approach to estimate parameters from time traces that originate from an overdamped Brownian particle in a harmonic potential, or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (OU). We show that least-square fitting the…
We consider a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process involving a stochastic forcing term in the drift, as a solution of a linear stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion. For such process we specify mean and…
Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…
This work is to give the large deviation for a slow-fast system with level 3 random geometric rough path. Different from that driver rough path is of level 2, now the driver path comes from an anisotropic rough path that is lifted from the…
Tipping points have been actively studied in various applications as well as from a mathematical viewpoint. A main technique to theoretically understand early-warning signs for tipping points is to use the framework of fast-slow stochastic…