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Estimating the causal effect of a treatment on the entire response distribution is an important yet challenging task. For instance, one might be interested in how a pension plan affects not only the average savings among all individuals but…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-07 Lucas Kook , Niklas Pfister

Randomness is an unavoidable part of training deep learning models, yet something that traditional training data attribution algorithms fail to rigorously account for. They ignore the fact that, due to stochasticity in the initialisation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Bruno Mlodozeniec , Isaac Reid , Sam Power , David Krueger , Murat Erdogdu , Richard E. Turner , Roger Grosse

Differences-in-differences (DiD) is a causal inference method for observational longitudinal data that assumes parallel expected potential outcome trajectories between treatment groups under the counterfactual scenario where all units…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

With the rise of the network perspective, researchers have made numerous important discoveries over the past decade by constructing psychological networks. Unfortunately, most of these networks are based on cross-sectional data, which can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Yiming Wu , Fei Wang

Interventions are of fundamental importance in Pearl's probabilistic causality regime. In this paper, we will inspect how interventions influence the interpretation of causation in causal models in specific situation. To this end, we will…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Mehrzad Saremi

Understanding the pathways whereby an intervention has an effect on an outcome is a common scientific goal. A rich body of literature provides various decompositions of the total intervention effect into pathway specific effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 David Benkeser

Deep learning models achieve high predictive performance but lack intrinsic interpretability, hindering our understanding of the learned prediction behavior. Existing local explainability methods focus on associations, neglecting the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Niklas Penzel , Joachim Denzler

Many research questions concern treatment effects on outcomes that can recur several times in the same individual. For example, medical researchers are interested in treatment effects on hospitalizations in heart failure patients and sports…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Matias Janvin , Jessica G. Young , Pål C. Ryalen , Mats J. Stensrud

For many kinds of interventions, such as a new advertisement, marketing intervention, or feature recommendation, it is important to target a specific subset of people for maximizing its benefits at minimum cost or potential harm. However, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-12 Yanbo Xu , Divyat Mahajan , Liz Manrao , Amit Sharma , Emre Kiciman

Defining and identifying causal intervention effects for transmissible infectious disease outcomes is challenging because a treatment -- such as a vaccine -- given to one individual may affect the infection outcomes of others.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Wen Wei Loh , Forrest W. Crawford

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Julius Owusu , Monika Avila Márquez

Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Ruichu Cai , Zeqin Yang , Weilin Chen , Yuguang Yan , Zhifeng Hao

Learning causal structure from sampled data is a fundamental problem with applications in various fields, including healthcare, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Traditional methods predominantly rely on observational data, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Qiu Chengbo , Yang Kai

Quantile and quantile effect functions are important tools for descriptive and causal analyses due to their natural and intuitive interpretation. Existing inference methods for these functions do not apply to discrete random variables. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-03 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Blaise Melly , Kaspar Wüthrich

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Haijie Xu , Chen Zhang

We consider assessing causal mediation in the presence of a post-treatment event (examples include noncompliance, a clinical event, or death). We identify natural mediation effects for the entire study population and for each principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional mixtures of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and…

We consider the problem of identifying intermediate variables (or mediators) that regulate the effect of a treatment on a response variable. While there has been significant research on this classical topic, little work has been done when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-29 Abhishek Chakrabortty , Preetam Nandy , Hongzhe Li

Proxy variables are commonly used in causal inference when unmeasured confounding exists. While most existing proximal methods assume a unidirectional causal relationship between two primary variables, many social and biological systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Jiaqi Min , Xueyue Zhang , Shanshan Luo

Principal stratification is a popular framework for causal inference in the presence of an intermediate outcome. While the principal average treatment effects are the standard target of inference, they may be insufficient when interest lies…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li