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Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved exceptional performance on tabular classification tasks. However, like other classifiers, their performance can suffer under the effect of class imbalance, resulting in poor performance for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Samuel McDowell , Nathan Stromberg , Lalitha Sankar

Deep tabular modelling increasingly relies on in-context learning where, during inference, a model receives a set of $(x,y)$ pairs as context and predicts labels for new inputs without weight updates. We challenge the prevailing view that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Junwei Ma , Nour Shaheen , Alex Labach , Amine Mhedhbi , Frank Hutter , Anthony L. Caterini , Valentin Thomas

TabPFN has recently gained attention as a foundation model for tabular datasets, achieving strong performance by leveraging in-context learning on synthetic data. However, we find that TabPFN is vulnerable to label shift, often overfitting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Seunghan Lee

Predictive models are being increasingly used across a wide range of domains, including safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and criminal justice. Reliable uncertainty estimation is a crucial task in such settings. Tabular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Madhushan Ramalingam

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed as a promising way to train tabular foundation models. PFNs are transformers that are pre-trained on synthetic data generated from a prespecified prior distribution and that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Yuchen Ma , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Julius Vetter , Manuel Gloeckler , Daniel Gedon , Jakob H. Macke

While most ML models expect independent and identically distributed data, this assumption is often violated in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, resulting in the degradation of machine learning model performance. Until now,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Kai Helli , David Schnurr , Noah Hollmann , Samuel Müller , Frank Hutter

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Jake Robertson , Arik Reuter , Siyuan Guo , Noah Hollmann , Frank Hutter , Bernhard Schölkopf

This paper presents a novel application of the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN) - a transformer-based foundation model for tabular data - to geotechnical site characterization problems defined in the GEOAI benchmark…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Taiga Saito , Yu Otake , Stephen Wu

The recently developed Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) have shown very promising results for applications in low-data regimes. The TabPFN model, a special case of PFNs for tabular data, is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 David Rundel , Julius Kobialka , Constantin von Crailsheim , Matthias Feurer , Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Shi Bin Hoo , Samuel Müller , David Salinas , Frank Hutter

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Samuel Müller , Noah Hollmann , Sebastian Pineda Arango , Josif Grabocka , Frank Hutter

Model fusion aims to integrate several deep neural network (DNN) models' knowledge into one by fusing parameters, and it has promising applications, such as improving the generalization of foundation models and parameter averaging in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zexi Li , Zhiqi Li , Jie Lin , Tao Shen , Jun Xiao , Yike Guo , Tao Lin , Chao Wu

Machine learning (ML) systems are utilized in critical sectors, such as healthcare, law enforcement, and finance. However, these systems are often trained on historical data that contains demographic biases, leading to ML decisions that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jake Robertson , Noah Hollmann , Samuel Müller , Noor Awad , Frank Hutter

In engineering design, navigating complex decision-making landscapes demands a thorough exploration of the design, performance, and constraint spaces, often impeded by resource-intensive simulations. Data-driven methods can mitigate this…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Cyril Picard , Faez Ahmed

Training neural networks on randomly generated artificial datasets yields Bayesian models that capture the prior defined by the dataset-generating distribution. Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) are a class of methods designed to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Samuel Müller , Arik Reuter , Noah Hollmann , David Rügamer , Frank Hutter

Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely…

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Qiong Zhang , Yan Shuo Tan , Qinglong Tian , Pengfei Li

Planning effective interventions in biological systems requires treatment-effect models that adapt to unseen biological contexts by identifying their specific underlying mechanisms. Yet single-cell perturbation datasets span only a handful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Marvin Sextro , Weronika Kłos , Gabriel Dernbach

Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL already produce full predictive distributions, yet the benchmarks used to evaluate them (TabArena, TALENT, and others) still rely almost exclusively on point-estimate metrics (RMSE,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Jonas Landsgesell , Pascal Knoll