Related papers: Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress
Data is essential to train and fine-tune today's frontier artificial intelligence (AI) models and to develop future ones. To date, academic, legal, and regulatory work has primarily addressed how data can directly harm consumers and…
This tutorial article puts forth a framework to analyze the noncooperative strategic interactions among the members of a large population of bounded rationality agents. Our approach hinges on, unifies and generalizes existing methods and…
Predicting dynamic behaviors is one of the goals of science in general as well as essential to many specific applications of human knowledge to real world systems. Here we introduce an analytic approach using the sigmoid growth curve to…
Extensive research in pedestrian dynamics has primarily focused on crowded conditions and associated phenomena, such as lane formation, evacuation, etc. Several force-based models have been developed to predict the behavior in these…
Scientific discovery is a complex cognitive process that has driven human knowledge and technological progress for centuries. While artificial intelligence (AI) has made significant advances in automating aspects of scientific reasoning,…
It has been suggested that innovations occur mainly by combination: the more inventions accumulate, the higher the probability that new inventions are obtained from previous designs. Additionally, it has been conjectured that the…
Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…
Schumpeter's (1939) distinction between changes in the form of the production function corresponding to innovation, and shifts along the production function corresponding to factor substitution, does not preclude that the underlying…
Scale independence is a ubiquitous feature of complex systems which implies a highly skewed distribution of resources with no characteristic scale. Research has long focused on why systems as varied as protein networks, evolution and stock…
We establish selection of critical pulled fronts in invasion processes. Our result shows convergence to a pulled front with a logarithmic shift for open sets of steep initial data, including one-sided compactly supported initial conditions.…
Artificial intelligence (AI) trends vary significantly across global regions, shaping the trajectory of innovation, regulation, and societal impact. This variation influences how different regions approach AI development, balancing…
Empirical research has shown performance improvement of many different technological domains occurs exponentially but with widely varying improvement rates. What causes some technologies to improve faster than others do? Previous…
The influential Limits to Growth report introduced a system dynamics-based model to demonstrate global dynamics of the world's population, industry, natural resources, agriculture, and pollution between 1900-2100. In current times, the…
Open-ended evolution (OEE) is relevant to a variety of biological, artificial and technological systems, but has been challenging to reproduce in silico. Most theoretical efforts focus on key aspects of open-ended evolution as it appears in…
The interaction of all mobile species with their environment hinges on their movement patterns: the places they visit and how frequently they go there. In human society, where the prevalent form of cohabitation is in cities, the highly…
The emergence and decline of democratic systems worldwide raises fundamental questions about the dynamics of political change. Contrary to the idea of a stable endpoint of liberal democracy, recent backsliding towards less democratic…
The paper tries to identify new emerging patterns in the context of technological progress. Just as industrialization is associated with rationalization, mechanization, and automation, the Internet age is associated with computer models,…
The rapid adoption of AI in Earth system science promises unprecedented speed and fidelity in the generation of climate information. However, this technological prowess rests on a fragile and unequal foundation: the current trajectory of AI…
We study several models of growth driven by innovation and imitation by a continuum of firms, focusing on the interaction between the two. We first investigate a model on a technology ladder where innovation and imitation combine to…
Macroevolutionary dynamics often display sudden, explosive surges, where systems remain relatively stable for extended periods before experiencing dramatic acceleration that frequently exceeds traditional exponential growth. This pattern is…