Related papers: Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress
A key challenge when trying to understand innovation is that it is a dynamic, ongoing process, which can be highly contingent on ephemeral factors such as culture, economics, or luck. This means that any analysis of the real-world process…
The principled design and discovery of biologically- and physically-informed models of neuronal dynamics has been advancing since the mid-twentieth century. Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have accelerated this progress.…
Can sustained open-ended technological progress preserve natural resources in a finite planet? We address this question on the basis of a stylized model with genuine open-ended technological innovation, where an innovation event corresponds…
Human uplift studies, or studies that measure the effects of AI access on human performance via randomized controlled trials (RCT) or similar methodologies, increasingly inform frontier AI governance and deployment decisions. While RCT…
This paper presents a data driven universal ball trajectory prediction method integrated with physics equations. Existing methods are designed for specific ball types and struggle to generalize. This challenge arises from three key factors.…
Economic issues, such as inflation, energy costs, taxes, and interest rates, are a constant presence in our daily lives and have been exacerbated by global events such as pandemics, environmental disasters, and wars. A sustained history of…
Traditionally, Probability theory was dealing with limit theorems where 'limit" means that time tends to infinity. Questions about finite time dynamics (evolution) were always considered as, although important for practical applications,…
This study offers a new perspective on the depth-versus-breadth debate in innovation strategy, by modeling inventive search within dynamic collective knowledge systems, and underscoring the importance of timing for technological impact.…
Increasingly accelerating technology advancement affects and disrupts almost all aspects of human society and civilization at large as we know it. Actually, this has been true since the technology started at the dawn of human society, yet…
Recent advances in machine learning and AI, including Generative AI and LLMs, are disrupting technological innovation, product development, and society as a whole. AI's contribution to technology can come from multiple approaches that…
Population boundary is a classic indicator of climatic response in ecology. In addition to known challenges, the spatial and dynamical characteristics of the boundary are not only affected by the spatial gradient in the environmental…
Systems such as sensor networks and teams of autonomous robots consist of multiple autonomous entities that interact with each other in a distributed, asynchronous manner. These entities need to keep track of the state of the system as it…
A major challenge of interdisciplinary description of complex system behaviour is whether real systems of higher complexity levels can be understood with at least the same degree of objective, "scientific" rigour and universality as…
Land use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called frontiers, defined here as places experiencing marked…
Networked dynamical systems are common throughout science in engineering; e.g., biological networks, reaction networks, power systems, and the like. For many such systems, nonlinearity drives populations of identical (or near-identical)…
Time-invariant finite-dimensional systems, under reasonable continuity assumptions, exhibit the property that if solutions exist for all future times, the set of vectors reachable from a bounded set of initial conditions over bounded time…
Scientific research trends and interests evolve over time. The ability to identify and forecast these trends is vital for educational institutions, practitioners, investors, and funding organizations. In this study, we predict future trends…
Large-scale video generation models have demonstrated emergent physical coherence, positioning them as potential world models. However, a gap remains between contemporary "stateless" video architectures and classic state-centric world model…
We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured…
Scientists and inventors set the direction of their work amidst an evolving landscape of questions, opportunities, and challenges. This paper introduces a measurement framework to quantify how far researchers move from their existing…