Related papers: The Negative Binomial Chain-Ladder: A Full Likelih…
The chain-ladder (CL) method is the most widely used claims reserving technique in non-life insurance. This manuscript introduces a novel approach to computing the CL reserves based on a fundamental restructuring of the data utilization for…
Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…
In reinsurance, Poisson and Negative binomial distributions are employed for modeling frequency. However, the incomplete data regarding reported incurred claims above a priority level presents challenges in estimation. This paper focuses on…
Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…
Prediction of outstanding claims has been done via nonparametric models (chain ladder), semiparametric models (overdispersed poisson) or fully parametric models. In this paper, we propose models based on negative binomial distributions for…
An insurance company is required to prepare a certain amount of money, called reserve, as a mean to pay its policy holders claims in the future. There are several types of reserve, one of them is IBNR reserve, for which the payments are…
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability…
The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…
Claims reserving is one of the most important actuarial tasks in non-life insurance modeling. There are several popular methods to perform claims reserving such as the chain-ladder (CL), the Bornhuetter--Ferguson (BF) or the generalized…
We propose an asymptotic theory for distribution forecasting from the log normal chain-ladder model. The theory overcomes the difficulty of convoluting log normal variables and takes estimation error into account. The results differ from…
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and…
The correct inferential object in claims reserving is the conditional predictive distribution $p(R \mid \mathcal{D}, \hat\theta)$, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the observed triangle held fixed. We refer to this as the conditioning principle. All…
Matrix completion focuses on recovering missing or incomplete information in matrices. This problem arises in various applications, including image processing and network analysis. Previous research proposed Poisson matrix completion for…
Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is widely used as a feature extraction technique for matrices with non-negative entries, such as image data, purchase histories, and other types of count data. In NMF, a non-negative matrix is…
RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) has become a powerful technology to characterize gene expression profiles because it is more accurate and comprehensive than microarrays. Although statistical methods that have been developed for microarray data can…
Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…
High-dimensional count data poses significant challenges for statistical analysis, necessitating effective methods that also preserve explainability. We focus on a low rank constrained variant of the Poisson log-normal model, which relates…
The distribution-free chain ladder of Mack justified the use of the chain ladder predictor and enabled Mack to derive an estimator of conditional mean squared error of prediction for the chain ladder predictor. Classical insurance loss…
The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…
Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…