Related papers: The Negative Binomial Chain-Ladder: A Full Likelih…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…
We develop a model based on a generalised Poisson-Dirichlet distribution for the analysis of genetic diversity, and illustrate its use on microsatellite data for the genus Dasyurus (the quoll, a marsupial carnivore listed as near-threatened…
Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models provide elegant methods for discovering underlying latent features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. We exploit the fact that completely random measures, which commonly used…
We study several questions in the reliable agnostic learning framework of Kalai et al. (2009), which captures learning tasks in which one type of error is costlier than others. A positive reliable classifier is one that makes no false…
The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…
We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
The Tweedie GLM is a widely used method for predicting insurance premiums. However, the structure of the logarithmic mean is restricted to a linear form in the Tweedie GLM, which can be too rigid for many applications. As a better…
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic parsing model, which defines a proper conditional probability distribution over non-projective dependency trees for a given sentence, using neural representations as inputs. The neural network…
Complementary-label learning (CLL) is widely used in weakly supervised classification, but it faces a significant challenge in real-world datasets when confronted with class-imbalanced training samples. In such scenarios, the number of…
Probabilistic survival analysis models seek to estimate the distribution of the future occurrence (time) of an event given a set of covariates. In recent years, these models have preferred nonparametric specifications that avoid directly…
We propose a novel method for selective classification (SC), a problem which allows a classifier to abstain from predicting some instances, thus trading off accuracy against coverage (the fraction of instances predicted). In contrast to…
[ABRIDGED] The Cash statistic, also known as the C stat, is commonly used for the analysis of low-count Poisson data, including data with null counts for certain values of the independent variable. The use of this statistic is especially…
Dilation is a puzzling phenomenon within Imprecise Probability theory: when it obtains, our uncertainty evaluation on event $A$ is vaguer after conditioning $A$ on $B$, whatever is event $B$ in a given partition $\mathcal{B}$. In this paper…
Traditional techniques for calculating outstanding claim liabilities such as the chain ladder are notoriously at risk of being distorted by outliers in past claims data. Unfortunately, the literature in robust methods of reserving is scant,…
Out-of-Distribution detection between dataset pairs has been extensively explored with generative models. We show that likelihood-based Out-of-Distribution detection can be extended to diffusion models by leveraging the fact that they, like…
Neural networks trained on real-world datasets with long-tailed label distributions are biased towards frequent classes and perform poorly on infrequent classes. The imbalance in the ratio of positive and negative samples for each class…
This paper presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) for loss reserving in a non-life insurance company. Because in this case the error of prediction is expressed by a complex analytical formula, the error bootstrap…
Random-effects models are central to meta-analysis, yet the between-study variance is often underestimated when the number of studies is small. In such settings, confidence intervals become unduly narrow and fail to attain the nominal…
Some pioneering works have investigated embedding cryptographic properties in compressive sampling (CS) in a way similar to one-time pad symmetric cipher. This paper tackles the problem of constructing a CS-based symmetric cipher under the…