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Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…
Realised pay-offs for discretisation-invariant swaps are those which satisfy a restricted `aggregation property' of Neuberger [2012] for twice continuously differentiable deterministic functions of a multivariate martingale. They are…
This paper presents numerical simulations of a bichromatic wave group propagating and breaking over a fixed breaker bar. The simulations are performed using a newly stabilized Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) two-equation turbulence…
This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…
Many modern time series arise on networks, where each component is attached to a node and interactions follow observed edges. Classical time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) treat all series symmetrically and ignore this structure, while…
This paper studies the income fluctuation problem with capital income risk (i.e., dispersion in the rate of return to wealth). Wealth returns and labor earnings are allowed to be serially correlated and mutually dependent. Rewards can be…
This paper presents a novel study on gas-like models for economic systems. The interacting agents and the amount of exchanged money at each trade are selected with different levels of randomness, from a purely random way to a more chaotic…
It is well-known that value added per worker is extremely heterogeneous among firms, but relatively little has been done to characterize this heterogeneity more precisely. Here we show that the distribution of value-added per worker…
Residential segregation recently has shifted to more class or income-based in the United States, and neighborhoods are undergoing significant changes such as commuting patterns over time. To better understand the commuting inequality across…
Economic and financial time series can feature locally explosive behavior when a bubble is formed. The economic or financial bubble, especially its dynamics, is an intriguing topic that has been attracting longstanding attention. To…
We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…
In the optimization under uncertainty, decision-makers first select a wait-and-see policy before any realization of uncertainty and then place a here-and-now decision after the uncertainty has been observed. Two-stage stochastic programming…
Static stability in economic models means negative incentives for deviation from equilibrium strategies, which we expect to assure a return to equilibrium, i.e., dynamic stability, as long as agents respond to incentives. There have been…
We consider a selfish variant of the knapsack problem. In our version, the items are owned by agents, and each agent can misrepresent the set of items she owns---either by avoiding reporting some of them (understating), or by reporting…
This paper presents a continuous-time model of intraday trading, pricing, and liquidity with dynamic TWAP and VWAP benchmarks. The model is solved in closed-form for the competitive equilibrium and also for non-price-taking equilibria. The…
Out-of-distribution generalization in reinforcement learning is hard to diagnose when benchmark shifts mix dynamics, observations, goals, and rewards. We address this with Tape, a controlled benchmark that isolates latent rule-shift in…
The dynamic hedging theory only makes sense in the setup of one given model, whereas the practice of dynamic hedging is just the opposite, with models fleeing after the data through daily recalibration. This is quite of a quantitative…
Time-varying parameters (TVPs) models are frequently used in economics to capture structural change. I highlight a rather underutilized fact -- that these are actually ridge regressions. Instantly, this makes computations, tuning, and…
A stable-like process is a Feller process $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and whose generator behaves, locally, like an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process, but the index $\alpha$ and all other characteristics may depend on the…
A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…