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Piecewise constant functions describe a variety of real-world phenomena in domains ranging from chemistry to manufacturing. In practice, it is often required to confidently identify the locations of the abrupt changes in these functions as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Joseph Lazzaro , Ciara Pike-Burke

We consider the problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Yan Lan , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

We study the piecewise constant bandit problem where the expected reward is a piecewise constant function with one change point (discontinuity) across the action space $[0,1]$ and the learner's aim is to locate the change point. Under the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Joseph Lazzaro , Ciara Pike-Burke

This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla , Haotian Xu , Daren Wang , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Many industrial and security applications employ a suite of sensors for detecting abrupt changes in temporal behavior patterns. These abrupt changes typically manifest locally, rendering only a small subset of sensors informative.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Aditya Gopalan , Venkatesh Saligrama , Braghadeesh Lakshminarayanan

A common approach to detect multiple changepoints is to minimise a measure of data fit plus a penalty that is linear in the number of changepoints. This paper shows that the general finite sample behaviour of such a method can be related to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-15 Chao Zheng , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Abhishek Kaul , George Michailidis

We consider the setup of stochastic multi-armed bandits in the case when reward distributions are piecewise i.i.d. and bounded with unknown changepoints. We focus on the case when changes happen simultaneously on all arms, and in stark…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Subhojyoti Mukherjee , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

Change point estimation in its offline version is traditionally performed by optimizing over the data set of interest, by considering each data point as the true location parameter and computing a data fit criterion. Subsequently, the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Zhiyuan Lu , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-26 Monika Bhattacharjee , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

We study the problem of change point localisation and inference for sequentially collected fragmented functional data, where each curve is observed only over discrete grids randomly sampled over a short fragment. The sequence of underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-10 Gengyu Xue , Haotian Xu , Yi Yu

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

We propose an adaptive sampling approach for multiple testing which aims to maximize statistical power while ensuring anytime false discovery control. We consider $n$ distributions whose means are partitioned by whether they are below or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-18 Kevin Jamieson , Lalit Jain

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

In this paper, we consider the setting of piecewise i.i.d. bandits under a safety constraint. In this piecewise i.i.d. setting, there exists a finite number of changepoints where the mean of some or all arms change simultaneously. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-30 Subhojyoti Mukherjee

The problem of quantifying uncertainty about the locations of multiple change points by means of confidence intervals is addressed. The asymptotic distribution of the change point estimators obtained as the local maximisers of moving sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Haeran Cho , Claudia Kirch

In a fixed-confidence pure exploration problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits, an algorithm iteratively samples arms and should stop as early as possible and return the correct answer to a query about the arms distributions. We are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Adrienne Tuynman , Rémy Degenne

Changepoint detection is commonly formulated by minimizing the sum of in-sample losses to quantify the model's overall fit. However, for flexible modeling procedures -- especially those involving high-dimensional parameter spaces or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Chengde Qian , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou
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