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We provide a tight bound on the amount of experimentation under the optimal strategy in sequential decision problems. We show the applicability of the result by providing a bound on the cut-off in a one-arm bandit problem.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-07-14 Dinah Rosenberg , Eilon Solan , Nicolas Vieille

We present variational sequential optimal experimental design (vsOED), a novel method for optimally designing a finite sequence of experiments within a Bayesian framework with information-theoretic criteria. vsOED employs a one-point reward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wanggang Shen , Jiayuan Dong , Xun Huan

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

In this paper, we study the possibility of designing non-trivial random CSP models by exploiting the intrinsic connection between structures and typical-case hardness. We show that constraint consistency, a notion that has been developed to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-10-12 J. Culberson , Y. Gao

Standard A/B tests in online experiments face statistical power challenges when testing multiple candidates simultaneously, while adaptive experimental designs (AED) alone fall short in inferring experiment statistics such as the average…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Qining Zhang , Tanner Fiez , Yi Liu , Wenyang Liu

This paper proposes strategies for designing a system whose computational model is subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory variables, which are caused by randomness in physical parameters, are draws from a possibly unknown…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Luis G. Crespo

In recent years, more attention has been paid prominently to accelerated degradation testing in order to characterize accurate estimation of reliability properties for systems that are designed to work properly for years of even decades.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-23 Helmi Shat

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent the gold standard for causal inference yet remain a scarce resource. While large-scale observational data is often available, it is utilized only for retrospective fusion, and remains discarded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Erdun Gao , Liang Zhang , Jake Fawkes , Aoqi Zuo , Wenqin Liu , Haoxuan Li , Mingming Gong , Dino Sejdinovic

Recently, methodology was presented to facilitate the incorporation of interim analyses in stepped-wedge (SW) cluster randomised trials (CRTs). Here, we extend this previous discussion. We detail how the stopping boundaries, allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , David Robertson , James Wason , Adrian Mander

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is…

We investigate the merits of replication, and provide methods for optimal design (including replicates), with the goal of obtaining globally accurate emulation of noisy computer simulation experiments. We first show that replication can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-28 Mickael Binois , Jiangeng Huang , Robert B Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

Tech companies (e.g., Google or Facebook) often use randomized online experiments and/or A/B testing primarily based on the average treatment effects to compare their new product with an old one. However, it is also critically important to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo , Hongtu Zhu , Rui Song

Online experiments in internet systems, also known as A/B tests, are used for a wide range of system tuning problems, such as optimizing recommender system ranking policies and learning adaptive streaming controllers. Decision-makers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Qing Feng , Samuel Daulton , Benjamin Letham , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

The standard A/B testing approaches are mostly based on t-test in large scale industry applications. These standard approaches however suffers from low statistical power in business settings, due to nature of small sample-size or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Changshuai Wei , Phuc Nguyen , Benjamin Zelditch , Joyce Chen

The reinforcement fine-tuning area is undergoing an explosion papers largely on optimizing design choices. Though performance gains are often claimed, inconsistent conclusions also arise from time to time, making the progress illusive.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Hong Xie , Xiao Hu , Tao Tan , Haoran Gu , Xin Li , Jianyu Han , Defu Lian , Enhong Chen

Data collected from arrays of sensors are essential for informed decision-making in various systems. However, the presence of anomalies can compromise the accuracy and reliability of insights drawn from the collected data or information…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-19 Katie Buchhorn , Kerrie Mengersen , Edgar Santos-Fernandez , James McGree

A/B testing is widely used in modern technology companies for policy evaluation and product deployment, with the goal of comparing the outcomes under a newly-developed policy against a standard control. Various causal inference and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-25 Jinjuan Wang , Qianglin Wen , Yu Zhang , Xiaodong Yan , Chengchun Shi

Large-scale randomized experiments, sometimes called A/B tests, are increasingly prevalent in many industries. Though such experiments are often analyzed via frequentist $t$-tests, arguably such analyses are deficient: $p$-values are hard…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-27 F. Richard Guo , James McQueen , Thomas S. Richardson

We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given $L \ge 2$ response surfaces over a continuous input space $\cal X$, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-17 Ruimeng Hu , Mike Ludkovski

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a computational approach to reward-driven learning in sequential decision problems. It implements the discovery of optimal actions by learning from an agent interacting with an environment rather than from…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-06 Mauricio Tec , Yunshan Duan , Peter Müller
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