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Likelihood methods for measuring statistical evidence obey the likelihood principle while maintaining bounded and well-controlled frequency properties. These methods lend themselves to sequential study designs because they measure the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-07 Jeffrey D Blume , Leena Choi

We explore rigorous, systematic, and controlled experimental evaluation of adversarial examples in the real world and propose a testing regimen for evaluation of real world adversarial objects. We show that for small scene/ environmental…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-17 Brett Jefferson , Carlos Ortiz Marrero

This paper studies the design of mechanisms that are robust to misspecification. We introduce a novel notion of robustness that connects a variety of disparate approaches and study its implications in a wide class of mechanism design…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-08-31 Giuseppe Lopomo , Luca Rigotti , Chris Shannon

The design of biological systems is hindered by uncertainty arising from both intrinsic stochasticity of biomolecular reactions and variability across laboratory or experimental conditions. In this work, we present a sequential framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Michal Kobiela , Diego A. Oyarzún , Michael U. Gutmann

This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i) exact probability limits for conventional two-way fixed…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-28 Craig S Wright

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the theory and application of sequential experiments. While these experiments are not always designed with hypothesis testing in mind, researchers may still be interested in performing tests…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-29 Karun Adusumilli

Computer experiments have become an indispensable alternative to complex physical and engineering experiments. The Kriging model is the most widely used surrogate model, with the core goal of minimizing the discrepancy between the surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Ruonan Zheng , Min-Qian Liu , Yongdao Zhou , Xuan Chen

A/B testing has become a gold standard for modern technological companies to conduct policy evaluation. Yet, its application to time series experiments, where policies are sequentially assigned over time, remains challenging. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Xiangkun Wu , Qianglin Wen , Yingying Zhang , Hongtu Zhu , Ting Li , Chengchun Shi

The primary goal of my Ph.D. study is to develop provably efficient and practical algorithms for data-driven sequential decision-making under uncertainty. My work focuses on reinforcement learning (RL), multi-armed bandits, and their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Zhiyong Wang

Optimal design is a critical yet challenging task within many applications. This challenge arises from the need for extensive trial and error, often done through simulations or running field experiments. Fortunately, sequential optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Xubo Yue , Raed Al Kontar , Albert S. Berahas , Yang Liu , Blake N. Johnson

Calibration of expensive simulation models involves an emulator based on simulation outputs generated across various parameter settings to replace the actual model. Noisy outputs of stochastic simulation models require many simulation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Özge Sürer

This paper studies the problem of high-dimensional multiple testing and sparse recovery from the perspective of sequential analysis. In this setting, the probability of error is a function of the dimension of the problem. A simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-06 Matthew Malloy , Robert Nowak

Switchback experiments, where a firm sequentially exposes an experimental unit to random treatments, are among the most prevalent designs used in the technology sector, with applications ranging from ride-hailing platforms to online…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-18 Iavor Bojinov , David Simchi-Levi , Jinglong Zhao

Understanding functional response within a predator-prey dynamic is a cornerstone for many quantitative ecological studies. Over the past 60 years, the methodology for modelling functional response has gradually transitioned from the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-29 Hayden Moffat , Markus Hainy , Nikos E. Papanikolaou , Christopher Drovandi

Empirical design in reinforcement learning is no small task. Running good experiments requires attention to detail and at times significant computational resources. While compute resources available per dollar have continued to grow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Andrew Patterson , Samuel Neumann , Martha White , Adam White

AB testing aids business operators with their decision making, and is considered the gold standard method for learning from data to improve digital user experiences. However, there is usually a gap between the requirements of practitioners,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Srivas Chennu , Andrew Maher , Christian Pangerl , Subash Prabanantham , Jae Hyeon Bae , Jamie Martin , Bud Goswami

Experiments used in current continual learning research do not faithfully assess fundamental challenges of learning continually. Instead of assessing performance on challenging and representative experiment designs, recent research has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-27 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal

The unknown parameters of simulation models often need to be calibrated using observed data. When simulation models are expensive, calibration is usually carried out with an emulator. The effectiveness of the calibration process can be…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-03 Özge Sürer , Stefan M. Wild

Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Dae Woong Ham , Iavor Bojinov , Michael Lindon , Martin Tingley

Sequential design of experiments for optimizing a reward function in causal systems can be effectively modeled by the sequential design of interventions in causal bandits (CBs). In the existing literature on CBs, a critical assumption is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Zirui Yan , Arpan Mukherjee , Burak Varıcı , Ali Tajer