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We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Judith Rousseau

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

The bootstrap is a method for estimating the distribution of an estimator or test statistic by re-sampling the data or a model estimated from the data. Under conditions that hold in a wide variety of econometric applications, the bootstrap…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-09-12 Joel L. Horowitz

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Leo L Duan , Alexander L Young , Akihiko Nishimura , David B Dunson

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

We propose a methodology for constructing confidence regions with partially identified models of general form. The region is obtained by inverting a test of internal consistency of the econometric structure. We develop a dilation bootstrap…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-10 Alfred Galichon , Marc Henry

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

This paper proposes a new nonparametric Bayesian bootstrap for a mixture model, by developing the traditional Bayesian bootstrap. We first reinterpret the Bayesian bootstrap, which uses the P\'olya-urn scheme, as a gradient ascent algorithm…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-28 Fuheng Cui , Stephen G. Walker

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-20 Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We consider bootstrap inference for estimators which are (asymptotically) biased. We show that, even when the bias term cannot be consistently estimated, valid inference can be obtained by proper implementations of the bootstrap.…

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

The Galton-Watson process is a model for population growth which assumes that individuals reproduce independently according to the same offspring distribution. Inference usually focuses on the offspring average as it allows to classify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Massimo Cannas , Michele Guindani , Nicola Piras

Datasets containing large samples of time-to-event data arising from several small heterogeneous groups are commonly encountered in statistics. This presents problems as they cannot be pooled directly due to their heterogeneity or analyzed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-05 Alexandre Piché , Russell Steele , Ian Shrier , Stephanie Long

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Mark D. Risser , Daniel Turek

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Julian Rodemann , Alexander Marquard , Thomas Augustin , Michele Caprio