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The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Vladimir Vovk

In clinical studies upon which decisions are based there are two types of errors that can be made: a type I error arises when the decision is taken to declare a positive outcome when the truth is in fact negative, and a type II error arises…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-19 Andrew P Grieve

Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Ulysse Gazin , Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain

Given samples from an unknown distribution $p$, is it possible to distinguish whether $p$ belongs to some class of distributions $\mathcal{C}$ versus $p$ being far from every distribution in $\mathcal{C}$? This fundamental question has…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-12-09 Jayadev Acharya , Constantinos Daskalakis , Gautam Kamath

We study the question of testing structured properties (classes) of discrete distributions. Specifically, given sample access to an arbitrary distribution $D$ over $[n]$ and a property $\mathcal{P}$, the goal is to distinguish between…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-01-22 Clément L. Canonne , Ilias Diakonikolas , Themis Gouleakis , Ronitt Rubinfeld

A nonparametric variant of the Kiefer--Weiss problem is proposed and investigated. In analogy to the classical Kiefer--Weiss problem, the objective is to minimize the maximum expected sample size of a sequential test. However, instead of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-26 Michael Fauß , H. Vincent Poor

This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

In this article we quantify almost sure martingale convergence theorems in terms of the tradeoff between asymptotic almost sure rates of convergence (error tolerance) and the respective modulus of convergence. For this purpose we generalize…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-13 Luisa F. Estrada , Michael A. Högele , Alexander Steinicke

We revisit the outlier hypothesis testing framework of Li \emph{et al.} (TIT 2014) and derive fundamental limits for the optimal test. In outlier hypothesis testing, one is given multiple observed sequences, where most sequences are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-17 Lin Zhou , Yun Wei , Alfred Hero

We consider estimation and inference in a linear model with endogenous regressors where the parameters of interest change across two samples. If the first-stage is common, we show how to use this information to obtain more efficient…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-26 Bertille Antoine , Otilia Boldea , Niccolo Zaccaria

We study the soft covering phenomenon through the lens of Neyman--Pearson hypothesis testing: given a channel output sequence $y^n$, can one decide whether it was produced when the channel was driven by a random codeword, or generated…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Neri Merhav

In the framework of semiparametric distribution regression, we consider the problem of comparing the conditional distribution functions corresponding to two samples. In contrast to testing for exact equality, we are interested in the (null)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-12 Holger Dette , Kathrin Möllenhoff , Dominik Wied

We review approaches to statistical inference based on randomization. Permutation tests are treated as an important special case. Under a certain group invariance property, referred to as the ``randomization hypothesis,'' randomization…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-05 David M. Ritzwoller , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh

A large class of goodness-of-fit test statistics based on sup-functionals of weighted empirical processes is proposed and studied. The weight functions employed are Erd\H{o}s-Feller-Kolmogorov-Petrovski upper-class functions of a Brownian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-04 Natalia Stepanova , Tatjana Pavlenko

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data.…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-12 Federico A. Bugni , Jia Li , Qiyuan Li

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

We propose confidence regions for the parameters of incomplete models with exact coverage of the true parameter in finite samples. Our confidence region inverts a test, which generalizes Monte Carlo tests to incomplete models. The test…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-07 Lixiong Li , Marc Henry

We present a novel family of nonparametric omnibus tests of the hypothesis that two unknown but estimable functions are equal in distribution when applied to the observed data structure. We developed these tests, which represent a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-15 Alexander R. Luedtke , Marco Carone , Mark J. van der Laan

Given samples from two non-negative random variables, we propose a family of tests for the null hypothesis that one random variable stochastically dominates the other at the second order. Test statistics are obtained as functionals of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Tommaso Lando , Sirio Legramanti

Two semimetrics on probability distributions are proposed, given as the sum of differences of expectations of analytic functions evaluated at spatial or frequency locations (i.e, features). The features are chosen so as to maximize the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-31 Wittawat Jitkrittum , Zoltan Szabo , Kacper Chwialkowski , Arthur Gretton