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Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Causal machine learning methods can be used to search for treatment effect heterogeneity in high-dimensional datasets even where we lack a strong enough theoretical framework to select variables or make parametric assumptions about data.…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-01 Patrick Rehill , Nicholas Biddle

Unlike parametric regression, machine learning (ML) methods do not generally require precise knowledge of the true data generating mechanisms. As such, numerous authors have advocated for ML methods to estimate causal effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-15 Ashley I Naimi , Alan E Mishler , Edward H Kennedy

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Meta-analyses are commonly performed based on random-effects models, while in certain cases one might also argue in favour of a common-effect model. One such case may be given by the example of two "study twins" that are performed according…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

The research is about a systematic investigation on the following issues. First, we construct different outcome regression-based estimators for conditional average treatment effect under, respectively, true (oracle), parametric,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Lu Li , Niwen Zhou , Lixing Zhu

Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing…

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Unlabeled data is often abundant in the clinic, making machine learning methods based on semi-supervised learning a good match for this setting. Despite this, they are currently receiving relatively little attention in medical image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Valentyn Melnychuk , Evgeniy Faerman , Ilja Manakov , Thomas Seidl

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Heterogeneous treatment effect models allow us to compare treatments at subgroup and individual levels, and are of increasing popularity in applications like personalized medicine, advertising, and education. In this talk, we first survey…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie

Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status.…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-09-23 Jennie E. Brand , Jiahui Xu , Bernard Koch , Pablo Geraldo

Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Chong Ding , Zheng Li , Hon Keung Tony Ng , Wei Gao

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is a well-studied topic in the statistics literature. More recently, it has regained attention due to an increasing need for precision medicine as well as the increased use of state-of-art machine…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-05 Zhongyuan Chen , Jun Xie

Evaluating sports players based on their performance shares core challenges with evaluating healthcare providers based on patient outcomes. Drawing on recent advances in healthcare provider profiling, we cast sports player evaluation within…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-27 Herbert P. Susmann , Antonio D'Alessandro