Related papers: Rolling-Origin Conformal Prediction under Local St…
Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…
Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…
Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework…
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…
We study split-conformal prediction for regression when the reported prediction set must be a single interval, at target marginal coverage $1-\alpha$, where $\alpha$ is the nominal miscoverage level. Under this reporting constraint, the…
We study the problem of conformal prediction in a novel online framework that directly optimizes efficiency. In our problem, we are given a target miscoverage rate $\alpha > 0$, and a time horizon $T$. On each day $t \le T$ an algorithm…
We study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data streams subject to unknown distribution drift. While most prior work studied this problem under adversarial settings and/or assessed performance in terms of gaps of time-averaged…
Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…
Conformal prediction gives exact finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, but deployed systems are judged by more than coverage alone. For a fixed calibrated rule reused over a finite operational window, stakeholders also…
Regime transitions routinely break stationarity in time series, making calibrated uncertainty as important as point accuracy. We study distribution-free uncertainty for regime-switching forecasting by coupling Deep Switching State Space…
Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any prediction model and converts point predictions into set…
We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in…
We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome…
Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…
Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…
Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…
Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…
Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…
Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world…
$O(n) \times O(m)$ symmetric Landau-Ginzburg models in $d=3$ dimension possess a rich structure of the renormalization group and its understanding offers a theoretical prediction of the phase diagram in frustrated spin models with…