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Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Rasool Fakoor , Murdock Aubry , Nicholas Stranges , Alexander J. Smola

Short-term load forecasting is an essential task that supports utilities to schedule generating sufficient power for balancing supply and demand, and can become an attractive target for cyber attacks. It has been shown that the power system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-09 Mojtaba Dezvarei , Kevin Tomsovic , Jinyuan Stella Sun , Seddik M. Djouadi

Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-02-08 Nicholas A. Allgaier , Kameron D. Harris , Christopher M. Danforth

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Alexander Kiefer , Prasanna Balaprakash , Xiao Wang

We re-examine the traditional Mean-Squared Error (MSE) forecasting paradigm by formally integrating an accuracy-timeliness trade-off: accuracy is defined by MSE (or target correlation) and timeliness by advancement (or phase excess). While…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-27 Marc Wildi

Entropy regularized algorithms such as Soft Q-learning and Soft Actor-Critic, recently showed state-of-the-art performance on a number of challenging reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. The regularized formulation modifies the standard RL…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-15 Elena Smirnova , Elvis Dohmatob

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become an effective way to improve prompt alignment and perceptual quality in diffusion and flow-matching generators. A critical step for applying online RL to flow matching is turning the deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jade Zou , Tao Huang , Weijie Kong , Junzhe Li , Yue Wu , Qi Tian , Jiangfeng Xiong , Jianwei Zhang , Liefeng Bo , Zhao Zhong

Imposing known physical constraints, such as conservation laws, during neural network training introduces an inductive bias that can improve accuracy, reliability, convergence, and data efficiency for modeling physical dynamics. While such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Nithin Chalapathi , Yiheng Du , Aditi Krishnapriyan

This paper investigates the exact controllability problem for multi-dimensional stochastic first-order symmetric hyperbolic systems with control inputs acting in two distinct ways: an internal control applied to the diffusion term and a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Zengyu Li , Qi Lü , Yu Wang , Haitian Yang

Hierarchical forecasting with reconciliation requires forecasting values of a hierarchy (e.g.~customer demand in a state and district), such that forecast values are linked (e.g.~ district forecasts should add up to the state forecast).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Charupriya Sharma , Iñaki Estella Aguerri , Daniel Guimarans

Reinforcement learning (RL) is widely used for humanoid control, with on-policy methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) enabling robust training via large-scale parallel simulation and, in some cases, zero-shot deployment to real…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Weidong Huang , Zhehan Li , Hangxin Liu , Biao Hou , Yao Su , Jingwen Zhang

In this paper, we present long-awaited algorithmic advances toward the efficient construction of near-optimal replenishment policies for a true inventory management classic, the economic warehouse lot scheduling problem. While this paradigm…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Danny Segev

Unless special conditions apply, the attempt to solve ill-conditioned systems of linear equations with standard numerical methods leads to uncontrollably high numerical error. Often, such systems arise from the discretization of operator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Stephan Mohr , Yuji Nakatsukasa , Carolina Urzúa-Torres

Accurate long-term forecasting of spatiotemporal dynamics remains a fundamental challenge across scientific and engineering domains. Existing machine learning methods often neglect governing physical laws and fail to quantify inherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Qingsong Xu , Jonathan L Bamber , Nils Thuerey , Niklas Boers , Paul Bates , Gustau Camps-Valls , Yilei Shi , Xiao Xiang Zhu

Language model agents often appear capable of self-recovery after failing tool call executions, yet this behavior lacks a formal explanation. We present a predictive theory that resolves this gap by showing that recoverability follows a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Sri Vatsa Vuddanti , Satwik Kumar Chittiprolu

Model predictive control can optimally deal with nonlinear systems under consideration of constraints. The control performance depends on the model accuracy and the prediction horizon. Recent advances propose to use reinforcement learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Dean Brandner , Sergio Lucia

Humans seamlessly fuse anticipatory planning with immediate feedback to perform successive mobile manipulation tasks without stopping, achieving both high efficiency and reliability. Replicating this fluid and reliable behavior in robots…

For future extremely large telescopes, error in extreme adaptive optics systems at small angular separations will be highly impacted by the lag time of the correction, which is typically on millisecond timescales; one solution is to apply a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-05 J. Fowler , M. A. M. van Kooten , R. Jensen-Clem

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Lukas Neubauer , Peter Filzmoser

Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-02 Victor Li , Baiting Chen , Yuzhen Mao , Qi Lei , Zhun Deng
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