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Model mismatch and process noise are two frequently occurring phenomena that can drastically affect the performance of model predictive control (MPC) in practical applications. We propose a principled way to tune the cost function and the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-24 Riccardo Zuliani , Efe C. Balta , John Lygeros

Feedforward control can greatly improve the response time and control accuracy of any mechatronic system. However, in order to compensate for the effects of modeling errors or disturbances, it is imperative that this type of control works…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-17 Eduardo Moya-Lasheras , Edgar Ramirez-Laboreo , Eloy Serrano-Seco

The availability of precise and accurate simulation is a limiting factor for interpreting and forecasting data in many fields of science and engineering. Often, one or more distinct simulation software applications are developed, each with…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-02-19 Moritz Wolf , Lars O. Stietz , Patrick L. S. Connor , Peter Schleper , Samuel Bein

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Patrick E. McSharry , Leonard A. Smith

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we…

Maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear models can exhibit substantial instability in finite samples when the data provide limited information about certain parameters. Such instability is driven by rare but extreme realizations of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Masamune Iwasawa

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Pedram Khorsandi , Rushil Gupta , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Gauthier Gidel

Reinforcement Learning (RL) lacks benchmarks that enable precise, white-box diagnostics of agent behavior. Current environments often entangle complexity factors and lack ground-truth optimality metrics, making it difficult to isolate why…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Leonard Pleiss , Carolin Schmidt , Maximilian Schiffer

Inference is a main task in structured prediction and it is naturally modeled with a graph. In the context of Markov random fields, noisy observations corresponding to nodes and edges are usually involved, and the goal of exact inference is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-12 Hanbyul Lee , Kevin Bello , Jean Honorio

While reachability analysis is one of the most promising approaches for formal verification of dynamic systems, a major disadvantage preventing a more widespread application is the requirement to manually tune algorithm parameters such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Niklas Kochdumper , Stanley Bak

In control theory, typically a nominal model is assumed based on which an optimal control is designed and then applied to an actual (true) system. This gives rise to the problem of performance loss due to the mismatch between the true model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-19 Somnath Pradhan , Serdar Yuksel

Precise markings for drilling and assembly are crucial, laborious construction tasks. Aerial robots with suitable end-effectors are capable of markings at the millimeter scale. However, so far, they have only been demonstrated under…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Christian Lanegger , Michael Pantic , Rik Bähnemann , Roland Siegwart , Lionel Ott

A self-learning optimal control algorithm for episodic fixed-horizon manufacturing processes with time-discrete control actions is proposed and evaluated on a simulated deep drawing process. The control model is built during consecutive…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-01-07 Johannes Dornheim , Norbert Link , Peter Gumbsch

Optimal control provides a principled framework for transforming dynamical system models into intelligent decision-making, yet classical computational approaches are often too expensive for real-time deployment in dynamic or uncertain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Wuzhe Xu , Jiequn Han , Rongjie Lai

In machine learning forecasting, standard error metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) quantify discrepancies between predictions and target values. However, these metrics do not directly evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Zhou Fang , Gianmarco Mengaldo

In end-to-end distributed real time systems, a task may be executed sequentially on different processors. The end-toend task response time must not exceed the end-to-end task deadline to consider the task a schedulable task. In transient…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2013-06-04 W. El-Haweet , Islam Elgedawy , Ibrahim Abd El-Salam

Average forecast accuracy is not the same as forecast reliability. I treat forecast loss differentials relative to a benchmark as a return series. I then evaluate these returns using risk-adjusted performance measures from finance,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Philippe Goulet Coulombe

Finding optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is challenging due to their uncountable state spaces when transformed into fully observable Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) using belief states.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-09 Yunus Emre Demirci , Ali Devran Kara , Serdar Yüksel

For an $(n,k,\ell)$ MDS array code over $\mathbb{F}_q$, how small can the repair bandwidth and repair I/O be under linear exact repair? We study this question in the regime where the field size $q$, the redundancy $r=n-k$, and the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Hai Liu , Huawei Wu

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-09 Tilmann Gneiting