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Influence maximization in networks is a central problem in machine learning and causal inference, where an intervention on a subset of individuals triggers a diffusion process through the network. Existing approaches typically optimize…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Renjie Cao , Zhuoxin Yan , Xinyan Su , Zhiheng Zhang

Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-18 Samuel Håkansson , Viktor Lindblom , Omer Gottesman , Fredrik D. Johansson

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Determining identifiability of causal effects from observational data under latent confounding is a central challenge in causal inference. For linear structural causal models, identifiability of causal effects is decidable through symbolic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-23 Benjamin Hollering , Pratik Misra , Nils Sturma

Inferring the causal structure of a system typically requires interventional data, rather than just observational data. Since interventional experiments can be costly, it is preferable to select interventions that yield the maximum amount…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-30 Michele Zemplenyi , Jeffrey W. Miller

This paper focuses on the computational complexity of computing empirical plug-in estimates for causal effect queries. Given a causal graph and observational data, any identifiable causal query can be estimated from an expression over the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-18 Rina Dechter , Annie Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian

In confirmatory clinical trials, it has been proposed to use a simple iterative graphical approach to construct and perform intersection hypotheses tests with a weighted Bonferroni-type procedure to control type I errors in the strong…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Tianyu Zhan , Alan H Hartford , Jian Kang , Walter W Offen

This paper addresses the challenge of identifying a minimal subset of discrete, independent variables that best predicts a binary class. We propose an efficient iterative method that sequentially selects variables based on which one…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-03 María del Carmen Romero , Mariana del Fresno , Alejandro Clausse

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-01 Xiaohong Chen , Sokbae Lee , Myung Hwan Seo , Myunghyun Song

The reliable fraction of information is an attractive score for quantifying (functional) dependencies in high-dimensional data. In this paper, we systematically explore the algorithmic implications of using this measure for optimization. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-17 Panagiotis Mandros , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

Determining the causal structure of a set of variables is critical for both scientific inquiry and decision-making. However, this is often challenging in practice due to limited interventional data. Given that randomized experiments are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Karren Yang , Karthik Shanmugam , Caroline Uhler

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-15 Georgios Gerasimou

Causal attribution, which aims to explain why events or behaviors occur, is crucial in causal inference and enhances our understanding of cause-and-effect relationships in scientific research. The probabilities of necessary causation (PN)…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Zhaoqing Tian , Peng Wu

Proximal causal inference is a recently proposed framework for evaluating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. For point identification of causal effects, it leverages a pair of so-called treatment and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-30 AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has received much attention in the literature in the past decade. In this context, Sparse Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) have been shown to be among the most promising methods because of their ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-17 N. Fajraoui , S. Marelli , B. Sudret

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl