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The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…

Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-10-28 Jack Leitch , Kathleen A. Alexander , Srijan Sengupta

Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-29 Thien-Minh Le , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Routine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases -- possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-12 Sebastian Meyer , Leonhard Held

In this paper, we develop a graphical modeling framework for the inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types. In medical studies, this setting arises whenever a set of subjects, which may be heterogeneous due to…

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…

From pathogens and computer viruses to genes and memes, contagion models have found widespread utility across the natural and social sciences. Despite their success and breadth of adoption, the approach and structure of these models remain…

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…

In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-18 Alexander Leibenzon , Samuel W. S. Johnson , Ruth E. Baker , Michael Assaf

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-05 Tejasv Bedi , Yanxun Xu , Qiwei Li

In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Alex Diana , Jackie Wong Siaw Tze , Aniketh Pittea

Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-05 Ritabrata Dutta , Antonietta Mira , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Analyzing data collected from multiple sources to estimate common and heterogeneous structures through a hierarchical model is a central task in Bayesian inference, and to this end, Bayesian factor models are one of the most widely used…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Naoki Awaya , Keisuke Sasaki , Genya Kobayashi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-12 Theodore Kypraios , Philip D. O'Neill

Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging diseases. Since the 1980's, mathematical modelers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to find effective and efficient implementations of contact…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-18 Johannes Müller , Mirjam Kretzschmar

Theory of graphical models has matured over more than three decades to provide the backbone for several classes of models that are used in a myriad of applications such as genetic mapping of diseases, credit risk evaluation, reliability and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-13 Henrik Nyman , Johan Pensar , Timo Koski , Jukka Corander

The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Ting Wang , Gui-Yun Li , Xin-Hui Li , Chi-Chun Zhou , Yuan-Yuan Wang , Li-Juan Li , Yan-Ting Yang

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Tom Britton , Theodore Kypraios , Philip O'Neill

Network data arises through observation of relational information between a collection of entities. Recent work in the literature has independently considered when (i) one observes a sample of networks, connectome data in neuroscience being…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 George Bolt , Simón Lunagómez , Christopher Nemeth

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-02 Gail E. Potter , Timo Smieszek , Kerstin Sailer