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Ensemble models in E-commerce combine predictions from multiple sub-models for ranking and revenue improvement. Industrial ensemble models are typically deep neural networks, following the supervised learning paradigm to infer conversion…

Sample-efficient machine learning (SEML) has been widely applied to find optimal latency and power tradeoffs for configurable computer systems. Instead of randomly sampling from the configuration space, SEML reduces the search cost by…

The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…

In this paper, we consider sequential online prediction (SOP) for streaming data in the presence of outliers and change points. We propose an INstant TEmporal structure Learning (INTEL) algorithm to address this problem. Our INTEL algorithm…

We consider prediction with expert advice when data are generated from distributions varying arbitrarily within an unknown constraint set. This semi-adversarial setting includes (at the extremes) the classical i.i.d. setting, when the…

This paper studies the long-term energy management of a microgrid coordinating hybrid hydrogen-battery energy storage. We develop an approximate semi-empirical hydrogen storage model to accurately capture the power-dependent efficiency of…

We examine the problem of smoothed online optimization, where a decision maker must sequentially choose points in a normed vector space to minimize the sum of per-round, non-convex hitting costs and the costs of switching decisions between…

Current approaches to model-based offline reinforcement learning often incorporate uncertainty-based reward penalization to address the distributional shift problem. These approaches, commonly known as pessimistic value iteration, use Monte…

The exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) have emerged as an important framework for modeling social networks for a wide variety of relational types. ERGMs for valued networks are less well-developed than their unvalued…

Online prediction for streaming time series data has practical use for many real-world applications where downstream decisions depend on accurate forecasts for the future. Deployment in dynamic environments requires models to adapt quickly…

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts…

An open challenge in supervised learning is \emph{conceptual drift}: a data point begins as classified according to one label, but over time the notion of that label changes. Beyond linear autoregressive models, transfer and meta learning…

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is currently the leading approach for aligning large language models with human preferences. Typically, these models rely on extensive offline preference datasets for training. However,…

In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting unknown targets from data. We propose Online Residual Learning (ORL), a method that combines online adaptation with offline-trained predictions. At a lower level, we employ multiple…

In this paper, we consider a multi-user mobile-edge computing (MEC) network with time-varying wireless channels and stochastic user task data arrivals in sequential time frames. In particular, we aim to design an online computation…

We reinvigorate maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for macroeconomic density forecasting through a novel neural network architecture with dedicated mean and variance hemispheres. Our architecture features several key ingredients making MLE…

We describe $k$-MLE, a fast and efficient local search algorithm for learning finite statistical mixtures of exponential families such as Gaussian mixture models. Mixture models are traditionally learned using the expectation-maximization…

Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent…

Although the Bayesian paradigm offers a formal framework for estimating the entire probability distribution over uncertain parameters, its online implementation can be challenging due to high computational costs. We suggest the Adaptive…

While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at…