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The optimal phase estimation strategy is derived when partial a priori knowledge on the estimated phase is available. The structure of the optimal measurements, estimators and the optimal probe states is analyzed. The results fill the gap…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-05-29 Rafal Demkowicz-Dobrzanski

Precision medicine stands as a transformative approach in healthcare, offering tailored treatments that can enhance patient outcomes and reduce healthcare costs. As understanding of complex disease improves, clinical trials are being…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-15 Lara Maleyeff , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie , Marie Hudson

Accurate force fields are essential for reliable molecular simulations. These models are refined against quantum mechanical calculations and experimental measurements, which are subject to random and systematic errors. Bayesian Inference of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Robert M. Raddi , Vincent A. Voelz

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-30 Junhao Hua , Chunguang Li

A Bayesian optimal experimental design framework is developed for experiments where settings of one or more variables, referred to as profile variables, can be functions. For this type of experiment, a design consists of combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Damianos Michaelides , Maria Adamou , David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall

We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-15 Suzanne M. Dufault , Angela M. Crook , Katie Rolfe , Patrick P. J. Phillips

We introduce a probabilistic (Bayesian) framework and associated software toolbox for mapping population receptive fields (pRFs) based on fMRI data. This generic approach is intended to work with stimuli of any dimension and is demonstrated…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-21 Peter Zeidman , Edward Harry Silson , Dietrich Samuel Schwarzkopf , Chris Ian Baker , Will Penny

We analyze fully implicit and linearly implicit backward difference formula (BDF) methods for quasilinear parabolic equations, without making any assumptions on the growth or decay of the coefficient functions. We combine maximal parabolic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-14 Georgios Akrivis , Buyang Li , Christian Lubich

Optimization strategies driven by machine learning, such as Bayesian optimization, are being explored across experimental sciences as an efficient alternative to traditional design of experiment. When combined with automated laboratory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Riley J. Hickman , Matteo Aldeghi , Florian Häse , Alán Aspuru-Guzik

The $\mu$Dose system was developed to allow the measurement of environmental levels of natural radioactive isotopes. The system records $\alpha$ and $\beta$ particles along with four decay pairs arising from subsequent decays of…

We consider the problem of distributed estimation of a Gaussian vector with linear observation model. Each sensor makes a scalar noisy observation of the unknown vector, quantizes its observation, maps it to a digitally modulated symbol,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Mojtaba Shirazi , Azadeh Vosoughi

Optimal portfolio allocation is often formulated as a constrained risk problem, where one aims to minimize a risk measure subject to some performance constraints. This paper presents new Bayesian Optimization algorithms for such constrained…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-25 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li

We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management in the Baltic Sea. The management of salmon fisheries is currently based on the results of a complex Bayesian population dynamic model, and managers and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-20 Sakari Kuikka , Jarno Vanhatalo , Henni Pulkkinen , Samu Mäntyniemi , Jukka Corander

The key idea of Bayesian optimization is replacing an expensive target function with a cheap surrogate model. By selection of an acquisition function for Bayesian optimization, we trade off between exploration and exploitation. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-20 Leonid Matyushin , Alexey Zaytsev , Oleg Alenkin , Andrey Ustuzhanin

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Mihaela Chiappetta , Massimo Carraturo , Alexander Raßloff , Markus Kästner , Ferdinando Auricchio

The robust estimation of dynamically changing features, such as the position of prey, is one of the hallmarks of perception. On an abstract, algorithmic level, nonlinear Bayesian filtering, i.e. the estimation of temporally changing signals…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-05 Anna Kutschireiter , Simone Carlo Surace , Henning Sprekeler , Jean-Pascal Pfister

Federated learning faces huge challenges from model overfitting due to the lack of data and statistical diversity among clients. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel personalized federated learning method via Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Xu Zhang , Yinchuan Li , Wenpeng Li , Kaiyang Guo , Yunfeng Shao

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

In the need for low assumption inferential methods in infinite-dimensional settings, Bayesian adaptive estimation via a prior distribution that does not depend on the regularity of the function to be estimated nor on the sample size is…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-23 Catia Scricciolo