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The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo

In this paper we study a particular class of Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) which are semi-stochastic catastrophe versions of deterministic population growth models. In between successive jumps the process follows a flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Branda Goncalves , Thierry Huillet , Eva Löcherbach

Branching processes in a varying environment encompass a wide range of stochastic demographic models, and their complete understanding in terms of limit behaviour poses a formidable research challenge. In this paper, we conduct a thorough…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Serik Sagitov , Alexey Lindo , Yerakhmet Zhumayev

Avalanches in mean-field models can be mapped to memoryless branching processes defining a universality class. We present a reduced expression mapping a broad family of critical and subcriticial avalanches in mean-field models at the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-02-27 Jordi Baró , Álvaro Corral

The extinction of species is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. One way of investigating the causes and consequences of extinctions is to build conceptual ecological models, and to use the dynamical outcomes of such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-28 Sergey A. Vakulenko , Ivan Sudakov , Luke Mander

We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 C. Escudero , J. Buceta , F. J. de la Rubia , Katja Lindenberg

We describe innovation in terms of a generalized branching process. Each new invention pairs with any existing one to produce a number of offspring, which is Poisson distributed with mean p. Existing inventions die with probability p/\tau…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-18 Vishal Sood , Myléne Mathieu , Amer Shreim , Peter Grassberger , Maya Paczuski

Let $Z_{n}$ be the number of individuals in a subcritical BPRE evolving in the environment generated by iid probability distributions. Let $X$ be the logarithm of the expected offspring size per individual given the environment. Assuming…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-20 Vincent Bansaye , Vladimir Vatutin

Species extinction occurs regularly and unavoidably in ecological systems. The time scales for extinction can broadly vary and inform on the ecosystem's stability. We study the spatio-temporal extinction dynamics of a paradigmatic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-03-02 S. Rulands , T. Reichenbach , E. Frey

We consider inhomogeneous branching diffusions on an infinite domain of $\mathbb{R}^d$. The first aim of this article is to derive a general criterium under which the size process (number of particles) and the genealogy of the particle…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Félix Foutel-Rodier , Emmanuel Schertzer , Julie Tourniaire

Count data naturally arise in many fields, such as finance, neuroscience, and epidemiology, and discovering causal structure among count data is a crucial task in various scientific and industrial scenarios. One of the most common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jie Qiao , Yu Xiang , Zhengming Chen , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao

The survival of natural populations may be greatly affected by environmental conditions that vary in space and time. We look at a population residing in two locations (patches) coupled by migration, in which the local conditions fluctuate…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-11 Tal Agranov , Guy Bunin

Motivated as a null model for comparison with data, we study the following model for a phylogenetic tree on $n$ extant species. The origin of the clade is a random time in the past, whose (improper) distribution is uniform on $(0,\infty)$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David J. Aldous , Lea Popovic

A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-05 Henry C. Tuckwell

A mathematical model of interacting species filling ecological niches left by the extinction of others is introduced. Species organize themselves into genera of all sizes. The size of a genus on average grows linearly with its age,…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-02-03 Susanna Manrubia , Maya Paczuski

Motivated by the observation that anomalous diffusion is a realistic feature in the dynamics of biological populations, we investigate its implications in a paradigmatic model for the evolution of a single species density $u(x,t)$. The…

Biological Physics · Physics 2012-12-05 Eduardo H. Colombo , Celia Anteneodo

Class-labeled datasets, particularly those common in scientific domains, are rife with internal structure, yet current class-conditional diffusion models ignore these relationships and implicitly diffuse on all classes in a flat fashion. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Alex M. Tseng , Max Shen , Tommaso Biancalani , Gabriele Scalia

Time evolution of number of species (genera, families, and others), population of them, and size distribution of present ones and life times are studied in terms of a new model, where population of each genetic taxon increases by a (random)…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Caglar Tuncay

We consider two versions of stochastic population models with mutation and selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching process; here, individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of each other,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-02-19 E. Baake , R. Bialowons

This paper is a follow-up to a previous work where we considered populations with time-varying growth rates living in patches and irreducible migration matrix between the patches. Each population, when isolated, would become extinct.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Michel Benaim , Claude Lobry , Tewfik Sari , Edouard Strickler