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We consider the dynamics of a population spatially structured in colonies that are vulnerable to catastrophic events occurring at random times, which randomly reduce their population size and compel survivors to disperse to neighboring…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Valdivino V. Junior , Fábio P. Machado , Alejandro Roldán-Correa

We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-13 Nina Gantert , Stefan Junk

We consider stochastic growth models for populations organized in colonies and subject to uniform catastrophes. To assess population viability, we analyze scenarios in which individuals adopt dispersion strategies after catastrophic events.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Joan Amaya , Valdivino V. Junior , Fábio P. Machado , Alejandro Roldán-Correa

This review paper presents the known results on the asymptotics of the survival probability and limit theorems conditioned on survival of critical and subcritical branching processes in IID random environments. The key assumptions of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-28 Elena Dyakonova , Vladimir Vatutin , Serik Sagitov

We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-30 G. Achaz , C. Delaporte , A. Lambert

Populations are often subject to catastrophes that cause mass removal of individuals. Many stochastic growth models have been considered to explain such dynamics. Among the results reported, it has been considered whether dispersion…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 F. Duque , V. V. Junior , F. P. Machado , A. Roldan-Correa

A branching process in varying environment with generation-dependent immigration is a modification of the standard branching process in which immigration is allowed and the reproduction and immigration laws may vary over the generations.…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Miguel González , Goetz Kersting , Carmen Minuesa , Inés del Puerto

Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-08 N. Dori , H. Behar , H. Brot , Y. Louzoun

Ancestral inference for branching processes in random environments involves determining the ancestor distribution parameters using the population sizes of descendant generations. In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for ancestral…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-29 Xiaoran Jiang , Anand N. Vidyashankar

An ab-initio numerical study of the density-dependent, evolutionary stable dispersal strategy is presented. The simulations are based on a simple discretei generation island model with four processes: reproduction, dispersal, competition…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-01-09 Shlomit Weisman , Nadav M. Shnerb , David A. Kessler

Multitype branching processes with immigration in one type are used to model the dynamics of stage-structured plant populations. Parametric inference is first carried out when count data of all types are observed. Statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2009-02-27 Catherine Laredo , Olivier David , Aurélie Garnier

For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. Interestingly there is the possibility that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-07 V. I. Afanasyev , C. Boeinghoff , G. Kersting , V. A. Vatutin

We consider the diffusion approximation of branching processes in random environment (BPREs). This diffusion approximation is similar to and mathematically more tractable than BPREs. We obtain the exact asymptotic behavior of the survival…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-02 Christian Böinghoff , Martin Hutzenthaler

We consider a population of particles with unit life length. Dying each particle produces offspring whose size depends on the random environment specifying the reproduction law of all particles of the given generation and on the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-27 V. A. Vatutin , E. E. Dyakonova

The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Jimmy Lederman , Aaron Schein

A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-22 Lila Greco , Lionel Levine

This paper deals with branching processes in varying environment, namely, whose offspring distributions depend on the generations. We provide sufficient conditions for survival or extinction which rely only on the first and second moments…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-29 Daniela Bertacchi , Pablo M. Rodriguez , Fabio Zucca

We consider stochastic growth models to represent population subject to catastrophes. We analyze the subject from different set ups considering or not spatial restrictions, whether dispersion is a good strategy to increase the population…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-05 Valdivino Vargas Junior , Fábio Prates Machado , Alejandro Roldán-Correa

Many species live in colonies that prosper for a while and then collapse. After the collapse the colony survivors disperse randomly and found new colonies that may or may not make it depending on the new environment they find. We use birth…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-23 Rinaldo B. Schinazi

Source-sink systems are metapopulations of patches that can be of variable habitat quality. They can be seen as graphs, where vertices represent the patches, and the weighted oriented edges give the probability of dispersal from one patch…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Vincent Bansaye , Amaury Lambert
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