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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the common approaches…

Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…

In modern process industries, data-driven models are important tools for real-time monitoring when key performance indicators are difficult to measure directly. While accurate predictions are essential, reliable uncertainty quantification…

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this…

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to…

Predicting future states in uncertain environments, such as wildfire spread, medical diagnosis, or autonomous driving, requires models that can consider multiple plausible outcomes. While diffusion models can effectively learn such…

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Machine Learning has invariantly found its way into various Credit Risk applications. Due to the intrinsic nature of Credit Risk, quantifying the uncertainty of the predicted risk metrics is essential, and applying uncertainty-aware deep…

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

Despite the strong predictive performance of deep learning models for traffic prediction, their widespread deployment in real-world intelligent transportation systems has been restrained by a lack of interpretability. Uncertainty…

OOD detection has become more pertinent with advances in network design and increased task complexity. Identifying which parts of the data a given network is misclassifying has become as valuable as the network's overall performance. We can…

We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles…

Rapid and accurate wildfire smoke severity assessment from satellite images is essential for emergency response, air quality modeling, and human health risk management. Existing deep learning approaches treat smoke detection as a binary…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…