Related papers: Boundary-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for Wild…

When implementing prediction models for high-stakes real-world applications such as medicine, finance, and autonomous systems, quantifying prediction uncertainty is critical for effective risk management. Traditional approaches to…

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require proper uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. In this light, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic…

Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

Forest fires pose a significant threat to the environment, human life, and property. Early detection and response are crucial to mitigating the impact of these disasters. However, traditional forest fire detection methods are often hindered…

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…

Wildfires present intricate challenges for prediction, necessitating the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques for effective modeling\cite{jain2020review}. In our research, we conducted a thorough assessment of various machine…

In driving scenarios with poor visibility or occlusions, it is important that the autonomous vehicle would take into account all the uncertainties when making driving decisions, including choice of a safe speed. The grid-based perception…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) to detect samples with large expected errors (outliers) is applied to reactive molecular potential energy surfaces (PESs). Three methods - Ensembles, Deep Evidential Regression (DER), and Gaussian Mixture…

Wildfires pose an increasingly severe threat to air quality, yet quantifying their causal impact remains challenging due to unmeasured meteorological and geographic confounders. Moreover, wildfire impacts on air quality may exhibit…

Due to climate change, the extreme wildfire has become one of the most dangerous natural hazards to human civilization. Even though, some wildfires may be initially caused by human activity, but the spread of wildfires is mainly determined…

Every wildfire prediction model deployed today shares a dangerous property: none of these methods provides formal guarantees on how much fire spread is missed. Despite extensive work on wildfire spread prediction using deep learning, no…

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

AI deployed in the real-world should be capable of autonomously adapting to novelties encountered after deployment. Yet, in the field of continual learning, the reliance on novelty and labeling oracles is commonplace albeit unrealistic.…

Post-hoc explanation methods have become a critical tool for understanding black-box classifiers in high-stakes applications. However, high-performing classifiers are often highly nonlinear and can exhibit complex behavior around the…