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We introduce a flexible, scalable Bayesian inference framework for nonlinear dynamical systems characterised by distinct and hierarchical variability at the individual, group, and population levels. Our model class is a generalisation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-03 Geoffrey Roeder , Paul K. Grant , Andrew Phillips , Neil Dalchau , Edward Meeds

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

In this paper, we propose a filtering algorithm for simultaneously estimating the mode, input and state of hidden mode switched linear stochastic systems with unknown inputs. Using a multiple-model approach with a bank of linear input and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-28 Sze Zheng Yong , Minghui Zhu , Emilio Frazzoli

Modeling and inference with multivariate sequences is central in a number of signal processing applications such as acoustics, social network analysis, biomedical, and finance, to name a few. The linear-Gaussian state-space model is a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-13 Émilie Chouzenoux , Víctor Elvira

We analyze convergence of decentralized cooperative online estimation algorithms by a network of multiple nodes via information exchanging in an uncertain environment. Each node has a linear observation of an unknown parameter with randomly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-08 Jiexiang Wang , Tao Li , Xiwei Zhang

We study the decentralized online regularized linear regression algorithm over random time-varying graphs. At each time step, every node runs an online estimation algorithm consisting of an innovation term processing its own new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Xiwei Zhang , Tao Li , Xiaozheng Fu

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-01 Tsuyoshi Ishizone , Kazuyuki Nakamura

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is challenging because distribution shifts come in many forms. Numerous algorithms exist to address specific settings, but choosing the right training algorithm for the right dataset without trial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Liangze Jiang , Damien Teney

LLMs are typically fine-tuned offline on domain-specific data, assuming a static domain. In practice, domain knowledge evolves continuously through new regulations, products, services, and interaction patterns. Retraining or fine-tuning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Mohammad Abu-Shaira , Weishi Shi

Recently, Gaussian processes have been used to model the vector field of continuous dynamical systems, referred to as GPODEs, which are characterized by a probabilistic ODE equation. Bayesian inference for these models has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Jian Xu , Shian Du , Junmei Yang , Xinghao Ding , John Paisley , Delu Zeng

In order for robots to safely navigate in unseen scenarios using learning-based methods, it is important to accurately detect out-of-training-distribution (OoD) situations online. Recently, Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) have…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Alonso Marco , Elias Morley , Claire J. Tomlin

Machine-learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high-resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-19 Jerry Lin , Sungduk Yu , Liran Peng , Tom Beucler , Eliot Wong-Toi , Zeyuan Hu , Pierre Gentine , Margarita Geleta , Mike Pritchard

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yuanye Liu , Yibo Gao , Yuanyang Chen , Xiahai Zhuang

Data streams in real-world industrial scenarios often contain transitional operating conditions that are uncovered during offline training, leading to significant distribution shifts. To bridge the gap between static offline models and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Hongshuo Zhao , Zeyi Liu , Xiao He

Modern recommendation systems frequently employ online learning to dynamically update their models with freshly collected data. The most commonly used optimizer for updating neural networks in these contexts is the Adam optimizer, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Shaowen Wang , Anan Liu , Jian Xiao , Huan Liu , Yuekui Yang , Cong Xu , Qianqian Pu , Suncong Zheng , Wei Zhang , Di Wang , Jie Jiang , Jian Li

State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Nazanin Abedini , Jana de Wiljes , Svetlana Dubinkina

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Soon-Seo Park , Young-Jin Park , Youngjae Min , Han-Lim Choi

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Paul Hagemann , Robert Gruhlke , Bernhard Stankewitz , Claudia Schillings , Gabriele Steidl
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