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We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

Short-term precipitation forecasting remains challenging due to the difficulty in capturing long-term spatiotemporal dependencies. Current deep learning methods fall short in establishing effective dependencies between conditions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 ChaoRong Li , XuDong Ling , YiLan Xue , Wenjie Luo , LiHong Zhu , FengQing Qin , Yaodong Zhou , Yuanyuan Huang

Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) aims to understand human emotions by integrating information from multiple modalities, such as text, audio, and visual data. However, existing methods often suffer from spurious correlations both within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Menghua Jiang , Yuxia Lin , Baoliang Chen , Haifeng Hu , Yuncheng Jiang , Sijie Mai

Meta-analyses are regarded as the highest level in the hierarchy of evidence, yet standard models traditionally concentrated on estimating the mean effect size, often under restrictive assumptions about the underlying distribution, such as…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-04-02 Yefeng Yang , Shinichi Nakagawa

We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in-changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-13 Martin Huber , Mark Schelker , Anthony Strittmatter

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan

Generative diffusions are a powerful class of Monte Carlo samplers that leverage bridging Markov processes to approximate complex, high-dimensional distributions, such as those found in image processing and language models. Despite their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-20 Zheng Zhao , Ziwei Luo , Jens Sjölund , Thomas B. Schön

Procedural content generation via machine learning (PCGML) is typically framed as the task of fitting a generative model to full-scale examples of a desired content distribution. This approach presents a fundamental tension: the more design…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-13 Isaac Karth , Adam M. Smith

Causal mediation analysis can unpack the black box of causality and is therefore a powerful tool for disentangling causal pathways in biomedical and social sciences, and also for evaluating machine learning fairness. To reduce bias for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-27 Siqi Xu , Lin Liu , Zhonghua Liu

Causal effect estimation from observational data requires careful adjustment for confounding. Classical estimators such as inverse probability weighting and augmented inverse probability weighting are effective under favorable model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Lei Wang , Debashis Ghosh

We investigate the finite sample performance of causal machine learning estimators for heterogeneous causal effects at different aggregation levels. We employ an Empirical Monte Carlo Study that relies on arguably realistic data generation…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-19 Michael C. Knaus , Michael Lechner , Anthony Strittmatter

Systematic biases in General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, making bias correction a technically demanding but necessary step for both short-term and long-term impact assessment.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Kamlesh Sawadekar , Seth McGinnis , Peijun Li , Kathryn Lawson , Chaopeng Shen

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Wasim Ahmad , Joachim Denzler , Maha Shadaydeh

Causal variance decompositions for a given disease-specific quality indicator can be used to quantify differences in performance between hospitals or health care providers. While variance decompositions can demonstrate variation in quality…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Bo Chen , Keith A. Lawson , Antonio Finelli , Olli Saarela

In this paper, we propose a new and unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning. Our approach simultaneously estimates a regression function and a conditional generator using a generative learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Shanshan Song , Tong Wang , Guohao Shen , Yuanyuan Lin , Jian Huang

Most existing debiasing methods for multimodal models, including causal intervention and inference methods, utilize approximate heuristics to represent the biases, such as shallow features from early stages of training or unimodal features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Vaidehi Patil , Adyasha Maharana , Mohit Bansal

Confounding bias is a key challenge in causal effect estimation from observational data. Double Machine Learning (DML) addresses this issue by estimating treatment and outcome nuisance functions, constructing treatment and outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Guodu Xiang , Kui Yu , Yujie Wang , Richang Hong , Fuyuan Cao , Jiye Liang

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Tianyu Pang , Cheng Lu , Chao Du , Min Lin , Shuicheng Yan , Zhijie Deng

The use of causal mediation analysis to evaluate the pathways by which an exposure affects an outcome is widespread in the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances in this area have established formal conditions for identification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Isabel R. Fulcher , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen