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Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…
Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…
Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…
Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…
Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…
Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…
Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…
In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a…
Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…
Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has attracted increasing research attention in recent years, due to its promising experimental results in real-world applications. In this paper,we study the confidence set prediction problem in the…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…
Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…
Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…
Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…
We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…